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02-08-2010, 11:14 AM
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#1 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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My offsseason research thread
I guess I will begin an off season research thread. I will attempt to post anything and everything I can find in terms of references and research that will be helpful in making the transition from the 2009 regular season to the 2010 regular season. This will be a long thread but one that can be used like a bulletin board. Feel free to comment and make additions or corrections to what I post. I will begin with coaching changes.
Akron - Rob Ianello replaced JD Brookhart (fired) Buffalo - Jeff Quinn (Cinn) replace Turner Gill (left for Kansas) C Mich - Dan Enos (Mich St RB coach) replaces Butch Jones (to Cinn) Cincinnati - Butch Jones (C. Mich) replaced Brian Kelly (left for N. Dame) E. Carolina - Ruffin McNeill (Interm at T Tech) replaces Skip Holtz (left for USF) Florida - Steve Addzaaioi (Florida OC) replaces Urban Meyer (leave of absence) Florida St - Jimbo Fish (FSU OC) replaces Bobby Bowden (will retire) Kansas - Tuner Gill (from Buffalo) replaces Mark Magino (retired) Kentucky - Joker Phillips (Kent OC) replaces Rich Brooks (retired) La. Tech - Sonny Dykes (Ariz OC) replaces Derek Dooly (left for Tenn) Louisville - Charlie Strong (Floride DC) replaces Steve Kragthorpe (fired) Marshall - May be DC Rick Minter who may replace Mark Snyder (resigned) Memphis - Larry Porter (LSU RB coach) replaces Tommy West (fired) Notre Dame - Brian Kelly (Cinn) replace Chalie Weis (fired) San Jose St - Mike MacIntyre (Duke DC) replaces Dick Tomey (will retire) Tenn - Derek Dooley (LA Tech) relaces Lane Kiffin (So Cal) Texas Tech - Tommy Tuberville (formerly Auburn) replaces Mike Leach (fired) ULM - Todd Berry (UNLV OC) replaces Charlie Weatherbie (let go) UNLV - Bobby Hauch (Montana HC) replaces Mike Sanford (fired) USC - Lane Kiffin (Tenn) replaces Pete Carroll (left for NFL) USF - Skip Holtz (E. Carolina) replaces Jim Leavitt (fired) Virginia - Mike London (Richmond HC) replaces Al Groh (fired) WKU - Will Tagart (Stanford RB coach) replaces David Elson (fired) We can update all off season as there will surely be a few more changes. I think this is the best place to begin my off season thread. Coaching changes are crucial to keep up with and have a big impact on which direction a team may go, up or down, as few remain the same. There are many factors to consider. New coaches often mean new systems and new systems sometimes take time. So the immediate impact of a coaching change may vary from the long term impact. QB's may have a lot on their plate, etc. so player performances early in the season are something to keep an eye on. Spring practices often give us an idea of how these transitions are going. Last edited by elmo; 02-08-2010 at 03:04 PM.. |
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02-08-2010, 01:00 PM
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#2 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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2009 records and returning starters - New Coaches
I thought I would go ahead and post last seasons records, SU and ATS, along with the number of returning starters I found for each team starting 2010 with a new coach. Returning starters include special teams. I will correct the number of returning starts later in the summer along with experience ratings when I find them. RS = Returning Starters
Akron - SU 3-9 ATS 3-8 - 17 RS Buffalo - SU 5-7 ATS 4-6-1 - 16 RS C Michigan - SU 12-2 ATS 9-4 - 13 RS Cincinnati - SU 12-1 ATS 5-7 - 13 RS E. Carolina SU 9-5 ATS 7-6 - 8 RS Florida - SU 13-1 ATS 7-6 - 15 RS Florida St - SU 5-7 ATS 4-8 - RS 14 Kansas - SU 5-7 ATS 3-8 - 16 RS Kentrucky SU 7-6 ATS 6-6 - 13 RS La Tech SU 4-8 ATS 7-4 - 15 RS Louisville SU 4-8 ATS 4-6-1 - 14 RS Marshall SU 7-6 ATS 7-5 - 15 RS Memphis SU 2-10 ATS 2-9 - 11 RS Notre Dame SU 6-6 ATS 4-8 17 RS San Jose St SU 2-10 ATS 1-10 - 17 RS Tennessee SU 7-6 ATS 7-6 - 13 RS Texas Tech SU 9-4 ATS 7-5 - 15 RS ULM SU 6-6 ATS 5-6 - 11 RS UNLV SU 5-7 ATS 3-8 - 15 RS USC SU 9-4 ATS 4-9 - 12 RS USF SU 8-5 ATS 5-5-1 - 14 RS Virginia SU 3-9 ATS 6-5 - 16 RS WKU SU 0-11 ATS 6-5 - 19 RS So these new coaches inherit teams that went 143-136 (52%) SU and went 116-150 (44%) ATS. I included Florida which may or may not lose it's coach. Last edited by elmo; 02-08-2010 at 03:05 PM.. |
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02-08-2010, 01:42 PM
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#3 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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Second Year Coaches
A related topic would be how did last years first year coaches do SU and ATS. You can fill in the blanks and come to your own conclusions and I will list the coach and his teams record both SU and ATS.
1. Chip Kelly (Oregon) SU 10-3, ATS 7-6 2. Dabo Swinney (Clemson) SU 9-5, ATS 8-5 3. Gene Chizik (Auburn) SU 8-5, ATS 6-6 Frank Spaziani (BC) SU 8-5, ATS 6-6 4. Lane Kiffin (Tenn) SU 7-6, ATS 7-6 Dave Clawson (BG) SU 7-6, ATS 7-6 Paul Rhodes (Iowa St) SU 7-6, ATS 8-4 Dave Christenson (Wyoming) SU 7-6, ATS 9-3 5. Bill Snyder (Kansas) SU 6-6, ATS 6-4 6. Steve Sarkisian (Wash) SU 5-7, ATS 7-5 Rich Ellerson (Army) SU 5-7, ATS 4-7 Tim Beckman (Toledo) SU 5-7, ATS 5-7 Dan Mullen (Miss St) SU 5-7, ATS 6-5 Danny Hope (Purdue) SU 5-7, ATS 6-6 7.Gary Anderson (Utah St) SU 4-8, ATS 8-3 Brady Hoke (SD St) SU 4-8, ATS 4-5-2 Dan Marrone (Syracuse) SU 4-8, ATS 6-5 8.Dewayne Walker (NM St) SU 3-10, ATS 5-6-1 9.Stan Parrish (Ball St) SU 1-10, ATS 6-5 10. Mike Locksley (NM) SU 1-11, ATS 5-7 Mike Haywood (Miami O) SU 1-11, ATS 5-7 11. Ron English (E. Mich) SU 0-12, ATS 4-8 SU the above group went 112-161 (41%) ATS the above group went 135-122-3 (53%) Which will improve and which will not, that is the question? |
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02-10-2010, 09:04 PM
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#4 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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Early Draft Losses & Best Returning Players
Last Friday was the final date that underclassmen could declare for the 2010 NFL Draft. In total 51 players declared early and while some teams were hit hard by the early entries others were more lucky with several players deciding to return for another year. Today I will break which teams were hit hardest and which teams have the best returnees that turned down the NFL.
In Wednesday’s Blog I will give my analysis of whether or not it was a good move/bad move for each player. Teams Hit Hardest: Florida lost 5 players to the draft which was more than any team in the country. On offense the Gators lost C Maukice Pouncey and TE Aaron Hernandez 912 yds (15.0 ypc). Defensively 3 players are gone including CB Joe Haden (68 tkl, 14 pd), DE Carlos Dunlap (38 tkl, 9 sk, 6 pbu) and S Major Wright (32 tkl, 5 pd) Georgia Tech-The Yellow Jackets lost a total of four players (2 off, 2 def) to the NFL including DE Derrick Morgan (55 tkl, 12.5 sk, 6 tfl), S Morgan Burnett (85 tkl, 4 pbu, 4 int), RB Jonathan Dwyer 1395 rush (5.9 ypc) and WR Demaryius Thomas 1154 yds (25.1 ypc!) USC not only lost their coach Pete Carroll but also their top receiver in Damian Williams 1010 yds (14.4 ypc), leading rusher RB Joe McKnight 1014 yds, (6.2 ypc), DE Everson Griffen (45 tkl, 8.0 sk, 1.5 tfl) and RB Stafon Johnson who opted not to purse a medical redshirt. Georgia lost their top tacklers in LB Rennie Curran (130 tkl, 5 tfl) and S Reshad Jones (73 tkl, 11 pd) from a struggling Bulldog defense that gave up 28 ppg and 363 ypg to FCS teams in ‘09. While expected Notre Dame did lose QB Jimmy Clausen who threw for 3722 yds (68%) with a 28-4 ratio and Biletnikoff award winner WR Golden Tate 1496 rec yds (16.1 ypc). Mississippi lost QB Jevan Snead who made an interesting move and decided to make the jump to the NFL after a disappointing junior season where Snead threw 20 interceptions. Other teams that lost multiple players included Alabama (2), Iowa (2) and South Florida (2). Complete List of Underclassmen Leaving Early: Toney Baker, RB NC State Arrelious Benn, WR Illinois Eric Berry, S Tennessee Jahvid Best, RB California Navarro Bowman, LB Penn State Sam Bradford, QB Oklahoma Dezmon Briscoe, WR Kansas Antonio Brown, WR Central Michigan Bryan Bulaga, OT Iowa Morgan Burnett, S Georgia Tech Dez Bryant, WR Oklahoma State Bruce Campbell, OT Maryland Jimmy Clausen, QB Notre Dame Rennie Curran, LB Georgia Anthony Davis, OT Rutgers Carlos Dunlap, DE Florida Jonathan Dwyer, RB Georgia Tech Dominique Franks, CB Oklahoma Toby Gerhart, RB Stanford Clifton Geathers, DE South Carolina Thaddeus Gibson, OLB Ohio State Everson Griffen, DE USC Rob Gronkowski, TE Arizona Joe Haden, CB Florida Aaron Hernandez, TE Florida Kareem Jackson, CB Alabama Chad Jones, S LSU Reshad Jones, S Georgia Abe Koroma, DT Western Illinois Darius Marshall, RB Marshall Joe McKnight, RB USC Ryan Mathews, RB Fresno State Gerald McCoy, DT Oklahoma Rolando McClain, LB Alabama Shawnbrey McNeal, RB SMU Carlton Mitchell, WR South Florida Derrick Morgan, DE Georgia Tech Jason Pierre-Paul, DE South Florida Maukice Pouncey, C Florida Brian Price, DT UCLA Jevan Snead, QB Ole Miss Blaze Soares, LB Hawaii Amari Spievey, CB Iowa Golden Tate, WR Notre Dame Demaryius Thomas, WR Georgia Tech Earl Thomas, S Texas Donovan Warren, CB Michigan Damian Williams, WR USC Mike Williams, WR Syracuse Jason Worilds, DE Virginia Tech Major Wright, S Florida Teams with Best Returnees that Turned down NFL: Arkansas received good news when QB Ryan Mallett decided to come back for another year. Mallett threw for 3624 yds (56%) and a 30-7 ratio in ’09 and hopes to lead the Razorbacks to an even better season in 2010. TE DJ Williams (411 yds, 12.8) also passed up the NFL. North Carolina’s defense will look very similar to the unit last year that gave up just 270 ypg and 17 ppg. The Tar Heels will bring back six junior starters in total including first team All ACC picks LB Quan Sturdivant, CB Kendric Burney and S Deunta Williams. North Carolina also welcomes back LB Bruce Carter and DT Marvin Austin. Washington QB Jake Locker who was projected by many to go in the first round decided to return for his senior season. Locker finally healthy had his best season in ’09 with 2800 pass yds (58%) and a 21-11 ratio as Washington was one of the most improved teams in the country going from 0 wins in ’08 to 5 in ’09. Michigan St received surprising news when the Big Ten defensive player of the year LB Greg Jones decided to return for his senior season. As a junior, Jones led the Big Ten and ranked third in the FBS with 154 tackles. It was the seventh-best single-season total in MSU history. Jones was also an AP 1st-tm all-American. While Oklahoma lost 3 key players who were expected to make the early jump in QB Sam Bradford, CB Dominique Franks, and DT Gerald McCoy the Sooners do welcome back WR Ryan Broyles, RB DeMarco Murray, and DT Adrian Taylor. Ohio St lost DE Thaddeus Gibson to the draft but DE/DT Cameron Heyward who could have been a 1st-rd pick, CB Chimdi Chekwa and LB Ross Homan have all decided to return for their senior seasons. South Carolina FS Chris Culliver, DE Cliff Matthews and TE Weslye Sanders passed up the Draft and will return for the Gamecocks in 2010. Miami, Fl welcomes back 1st-tm All-ACC DT Allen Bailey along with OT/OG Orlando Franklin and WR Leonard Hankerson. Houston QB Case Keenum who led the nation in pass yds with 5671 (70%) and a 44-15 ratio decided to return for his senior season. List of Significant Juniors who announced their return. Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska Marvin Austin , DT North Carolina Allen Bailey, DT Miami Fl Ahmad Black, SS Florida Allen Bradford, RB Southern Cal Ryan Broyles, WR Oklahoma Kendric Burney, CB North Carolina Bruce Carter, OLB North Carolina Chimdi Chekwa, CB Ohio State Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa Chris Culliver, FS, South Carolina Noel Devine, RB West Virginia Ras-I Dowling, CB Virginia Tech Orlando Franklin, OT/OG Miami, Fla, Leonard Hankerson, WR Miami, Fla Stanley Havili, FB USC Cameron Heyward , DE/DT Ohio State Ross Homan, OLB Ohio State Jarvis Jenkins, DT Clemson Greg Jones , ILB Michigan State Case Keenum, QB Houston Greg Little, WR North Carolina Derrick Locke, RB Kentucky Jake Locker, QB Washington Ryan Mallett , QB Arkansas Cliff Matthews, DE South Carolina DeAndre McDaniel, FS Clemson Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M DeMarco Murray, RB Oklahoma Mike Pouncey, OG Florida Greg Romeus , DE Pittsburgh Evan Royster , RB Penn State Jock Sanders, WR West Virginia Weslye Saunders, TE South Carolina Quan Sturdivant, ILB North Carolina Adrian Taylor, DT Oklahoma Harvey Unga, RB BYU Deunta Williams, FS North Carolina D.J. Williams, TE/HB Arkansas This was taken from a recent blog on philsteele.com |
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02-10-2010, 09:08 PM
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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Returning Starters - All Teams
2010 Returning Starters
Teams with Most Returning Starters
Ball St looks to improve upon their 2-10 record from last year with 21 starters back including all 11 back on offense. Miami Oh had a rough season in '09 under 1st-yr HC Mike Haywood going 1-11. In 2010 however Haywood will welcome back 20 starters including 10 on offense. Syracuse will return 20 starters back from last season's 4-8 team including 10 back from a defense that gave up just 219 total ypg in its final 3 games. Washington was one of the most improved teams in the country going from 0 wins in '08 to 5 wins last year. In 2010 HC Sarkisian welcomes back 20 starters including the unexpected return of QB Jake Locker who statistically had his best year in'09 throwing for 2800 yds (58%) and a 21-11 ratio. Teams with Fewest Returning Starters
Bowling Green had a nice season last year going 7-6 and coming just seconds short of winning the Humanitarian Bowl. 2nd-yr coach Dave Clawson will have to replace 7 starters on both offense and defense including NCAA record-setting WR Freddie Barnes and QB Tyler Sheehan. Colorado St lost its final 9 games in '09 and returns only 9 starters back in 2010. Alabama returns just 10 starters from last year's national championship team. However, 8 are back on offense including Heisman winner Mark Ingram, QB McElroy and WR Jones. HC Saban loses 9 starters on D but that side |
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02-11-2010, 02:45 PM
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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Overachievers/Underachieves 2009
As the season grows closer the polls will come out. Every year at least 10 preseason top 25 picks are not there at the end of the season. I found this little item at collegefootballpoll.com and it talks about overachievers and underachievers. When these polls come out it may be smarter to look for teams that are not in the preseason top 25 that could be overachievers and be there at seasons end. The list of underachievers that are listed are not necessarily top 25 teams but show that even lower ranked teams do not always do as well as expected either. The teams on this overachiever list may continue to exceed expectation in 2010 as only Washington and Miss St did not make it to a bowl LY. Wash and Miss St may make it this year as they both had new coaches and new systems to learn. The underachievers on the list did not have a lot of expectations except maybe Tulsa but all did worse than expected. You might ask yourself what are the chances of turning it around this year. Top 25 are catchy but since there are 120 teams competing it pays to do your homework.
Last edited by elmo; 02-11-2010 at 02:56 PM.. |
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02-11-2010, 03:09 PM
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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Overachievers/Underachievers - continued
Well I just could not leave that list alone. I went back and computed the success of the over and under achievers ATS. Not really surprising but it reinforces what I said above. I can see where making a list of teams that might overachieve and a list of those who might underachieve might be worth the effort.
The 10 teams on the overachiever list went 70-50-ATS (59%) which is very good. The 10 teams on the underachieve list went 40-74-1 ATS (35%) which just plain sucks. It in fact might be easier to find teams that will underachive than those that will overachieve although that is just my opinion. Betting against the underachivers on this list ATS would have hit at 65%. I am merely trying to throw out some unconventional ways to assess teams and to expand handicapping skills. There are unconventional approaches that need to be found and exploited. All of this is of course the best way to get an edge and is also the only way you can unshackle yourself from using and paying for touts. True success comes when you do the homework yourself and learn to make your own decisions based on information you did yourself. Stop and think about it. There are only 120 teams and it is simply not impossible to familiarize yourself with each and everyone of them. Do you think successful stockbrokers bet on corporations that they don't know who the CEO is and how that company stacks up against the competition. Same holds true in handicapping and as long as it is YOUR money you are betting, it should be YOUR INFORMED decision that is the basis for that decision. Last edited by elmo; 02-11-2010 at 04:14 PM.. |
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02-12-2010, 09:59 AM
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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Returning QB's from 2009 Top 50
Last offseason I went thru every team and calculated the returning points based on QB's, RB's, and Receivers who were returning. It was not as helpful as I thought and took a lot of time. This offseason I am going to concentrate on those QB's, RB's and WR's who return from last years final top fifty in each category. I am a big believer that this info is helpful early in the season. I will start with QB's that return:
1. Case Keenum - Houston (5671 yds - 44 TD's) 2. Taylor Potts - Texas Tech (3440 yds - 22 TD's) 12. Jerrod Johnson - Texas A&M (3579 yds - 30 TD's) 14. Azc Dysert - Miami-O (2611 yds - 12 TD's) 15. Ben Chappell - Indiana (2941 yds - 17 TD's) 18. Landry Jones - Oklahoma (3198 yds - 26 TD's) 19. Nick Foles - Arizona (2486 yds - 19 TD's) 24. Blaine Gabbert - Missouri (3593yds - 24 TD's) 25. Ryan Lindley - S.D. St (3054 yds - 23 TD's) 26. Kellen Moore - Boise St (3536 yds - 39 TD's) 27. Jake Locker - Washington (2800 yds - 21 TD's) 29. Russell Wilson - N.C. St (3027 yds - 31 TD's) Tevor Vittatoe - UTEP (3308 yds - 17 TD's) 31. Jacory Harris - Miami-FL (3352 yds - 25 TD's) 32. Chris Masson - LA-LAF (2406 yds - 10 TD's) 34. Stephen Garcia - S. Car (2862 yds - 17 TD's) 35. Nick Florence - Baylor (1786 yds - 6 TD's) 36. Bryant Moniz - Hawaii (2396 yds - 14 TD's) 37. Zack Maynard - Buffalo (2694 yds - 18 TD's) 40. Diondre Borel - Utah St (2885 yds - 17 TD's) 41. Omar Clayton - UNLV (2230 yds - 13 TD's) 42. Brian Anderson - Marshall (2646 yds - 14 TD's) 43. Matt Barkley - So. Cal (2735 yds - 15 TD's) 44. G.J. Kinne - Tulsa (2732 yds - 22 TD's) 45. Nathan Enderle - Idaho (2906 yds - 22 TD's) 46. Ron Mallet - Arkansas (3624 yds - 30 TD's) 49. Dwight Dasher - Mid Tenn (2789 yds - 23 TD's) 50. Spencer Keith - Kent St (2147 yds - 14 TD's) I am using as my source the NCAA Football Statistics - I just google NCAA Football Stastics and you have access to individual and team statistics for offense and defense. A lot of stats and really good info. I tried to pare the list down by omitting seniors and players going early to the draft. Some QB's who do not return who are going to be hard to replace are: Tyler Sheehan - Bowling Green Tim Hiller - Western Michigan Todd Reesing - Kansas Mike Kafke - NW Jimmy Clausen - ND Tim Tebow - Florida Colt McCoy - Texas Jevan Snead - Mississippi Thaddeus Lewis - Duke Zack Robinson - Okla State Riley Skinner - Purdue Max Hall - BYU Juice Williams - Illinois Patrick Pnekney - E. Carolina Daryll Clark - Penn State Jonathon Crompton - Tenn Last edited by elmo; 05-10-2010 at 04:06 PM.. |
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02-12-2010, 10:21 AM
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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Returning RB's from 2009 Top 50
The number in the brackets is the avg. yds/game
3. Dion Lewis - Pitt (138.38) 4. Donald Buckram - UTEP (132.83) 5. Ryan Williams - Virginia Tech (127.31) 8. Vai Taua - Nevada (122.27) 9. LaMichael James - Oregon (118.92) 11. Mark Ingram - Alabama (118.43) 12. John Clay - Wisconsin (116.69) 13. Alfred Morris - FAU (116.00) 14. Lance Dunbar - North Texas (114.83) 15. Barnard Pierce - Temple (113.42) 17. Noel Devine - West Virginia (112.69) 18. Montel Harris - BC (112.08) 19. Jacquizz Rodgers - Ore St (110.77) 20. Robert Turbin - Utah St (108.00) 21. Daniel Thomas - K-State (105.42) 25. Alexander Robinson - Iowa St (99.58) 29. Frank Goodin - La-Mon (93.83) 31. Chris Polk - Washington (92.75) 32. Brynn Harvey - UCF (92.42) 33. Ricky Dobbs - Navy (91.69) 34. Jordan Todman - Conn (91.38) 36. Colin Kaepernick - Nevada (91.00) 37. Harvey Unga - BYU (90.58) 38. Evan Royster - Penn St (89.92) 40. Dwight Dasher - Mid Tenn (88.77) 49. Eddie Wide - Utah (82.23) 50. Jeremy Avery - Boise St (83.23) Again, I hope I have eliminated everyone that was a Sr. or is going early in the draft. If you find any discrepencies please note them on the appropiate post. There are some big losses as far as RB's go and many of these guys will be hard to replace: Ryan Matthews - Fresno St Toby Gerhart - Stanford Anthony Dixon - Miss State Joe Webb - UAB Jonathon Dwyer - G Tech Dominique Lindsay - E Carolina Keith Toston - Okla St Shawnbrey McNeal - SMU Dexter McCluster - Mississippi C.J. Spiller - Clemson Last edited by elmo; 05-10-2010 at 04:05 PM.. |
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02-12-2010, 10:45 AM
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#10 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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Returning WR's from 2009 Top 50
3. Greg Salas - Hawaii (137.00) Again - AVG yds/game
7. Dezmon Briscoe - Kansas (121.55) 8. James Cleveland - Houston (101.17) 12. Eric Page - Toledo (96.58) 16. Danaris Johnson - Tulsa (94.25) 17. Ryan Broyles - Oklahoma ((93.33) 19. Jonathon Baldwin - Pitt (85.46) 20. Jerrel Jernigan - Troy (84.69) 24. Donovan Varner - Duke (87.25) 25. Titus Young - Boise St (74.36) 26. James Rogers - Ore State (79.54) 27. Tyron Carrier - Houston (73.50) 28. Patrick Edwards - Houston (72.93) 30. Darvin Adams - Auburn (76.69) 33. Dwayne Harris - E. Carolina (69.86) 35. Tandon Doss - Indiana (80.17) 38. Ryan Whalen - Stanford (71.23) 42. Greg Childs - Arkansas (68.77) 43. Scotty McKnight - Colorado (74.42) 47. Marshall Williams - W Forest (72.24) 48. Jermaine Kearse - Washington (72.17) 50. Austin Pettis - Boise St (65.77) Some notable WR's that will not return are as follows: Danario Alexander - Missouri Freddie Barnes - B Green Golden Tate - ND Jordan Shipley - Texas Emanuel Sanders - SMU Antonio Brown - Central Mich Mardy Gilyard - Cinn David Reed - Utah Demaryius Thomas - G Tech Tim Brown - Rutgers Shay Hodge - Mississippi Jeremy Williams - Tulane Damien Williams - So Cal Riley Cooper - Florida Armon Binns - Cinn So there is a lot of attrition in the WR category. Well now you have a look at the top ranking QB's, RB's, and WR's who are returning and some who are not. I think it is necessary to look and who is leaving not just look at the numbers in general. These players are the ones who score the points. I will next probably attempt to tie in the team scoring with the players who are coming and going to get a better look at how teams may transend from 2009 to 2010. Last edited by elmo; 05-10-2010 at 02:59 PM.. |
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02-12-2010, 11:30 AM
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#11 |
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Banned
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,755
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Returning Players - Total Offense - 2009
It dawned on me that I was missing a few names, both returning and not returning, that did not show up on the other three lists among them Tim Tebow who was not returning, and Terrelle Pryor who is returning. QB's now run and throw and their totals are more balanced and are maybe even more effective and valuable than the more one diminional players. Here is who returning from the 2009 Total Offense Top 50:
(avg yds/game) 1. Case Keenum - Houston (416.36) 3. Jerrod Johnson - Texas A&M (314.23) 9. Taylor Potts - Texas Tech (297.64) 11. Blaine Gabbert - Missouri (292.08) 15. Diondre Borel - Utah St (278.58) 16. Ryan Mallet - Arkansas (276.54) 19. Russell Wilson - N.C. ST (273.92) 21. Trevor Vittatoe - UTEP (268.75) 23. Jake Locker - Washigton (265.67) 25. G.J. Kinne - Tulsa (260.92) 26. Zac Dysert - Miami-O (260.82) 27. Nathan Enderly - Idaho (259.18) 28. Landry Jones - Oklahoma (257.08) 30. Kellen Moore - Boise ST (242.21) 31. Andy Dalton - TCU (251.38) 32. Bryant Moniz - Hawaii (251.30) 33. Zach Maynard - Buffalo (249.50) 34. Colin Kaepernick - Nevada (248.85) 36. Ben Chappell - Indiana (244.33) 37. Andrew Luck - Stanford (244.08) 38. Riley Dodge - N. Texas (243.80) 39. Ryan Lindley - S.D. St (243.58) 40. Jacory Harris - Miami-Fl (241.00) 43. Jeremiah Masoli - Oregon (234.58) 44. Stephen Garcia - S. Car (234.46) 45. Matt Barkley - So. Cal (224.75) 46. Omar Clayton - UNLV (224.36) 47. Kevin Riley - Cal (223.15) 48. Spencer Keith - Kent St (223.10) 49. Terrelle Pryor - Ohio St (221.00) 50. Richard Stanzi - Iowa (216.91) It is very surprising to see names like Jeremiah Masoli, Kevin Riley, Terrelle Pryor and Richard Stanzi not appear on any list until this one and at that to be at or near the bottom of the top 50 list. We all know these are valuable players. Again some who do not return from this Top 50 list are: Levi Brown - Troy Rodd Reesing - Kansas Tyler Sheehan - B Green Joe Webb - UAB Jimmy Clausen - ND Dan Leevour - C Michigan Mike Kafka - NW Thaddeus Lewis - Duke Max Hall - BYU Colt McCoy - Texas Tim Tebow - Florida Riley Skinner - W Forest Tim Hiller - W. Michigan Tony Pike - Cinn Darryl Clark - Penn St Sean Canfield - Oregon St These are big holes to fill and may take some for some of these teams to get back to LY's performance levels if at all. This may in fact be the most important list of the four and maybe a target area to focus on later on down the road. Last edited by elmo; 05-10-2010 at 03:00 PM.. |
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02-12-2010, 03:15 PM
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#12 |
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Breaking it down
There are several ways to break down the data we have on returning starters who ranked in the top 50 in either of the 4 categories we just covered. The first thing that I looked into is how many teams who ranked in the top 50 in TEAM offensive scoring LY have no players returning who ranked in the top 50 in the individual rankings. Very surprising, they are as follows:
Texas Cincinnatti Florida C Michigan Fresno St G Tech S. Miss Clemson N. Dame Florida St Air Force Michigan St Mississippi Michigan Tenn That does not mean they do not have returning starters returning at QB, RB, or WR just no player who ranked in the top 50 in his category in 2009. I will leave it up to each of you to take it from there but these teams will either improve or not in scoring in 2010. It should be pretty obvious that some of these teams will either struggle early on and maybe even not match last years scoring totals. It is hard to imagine any of them will improve in 2010 over 2009. Not bad information in my way of thinking. |
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02-14-2010, 12:53 PM
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#13 |
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Breaking down 5 teams
I am going to break down 5 teams and this is just to show how I do it. There are many ways to break teams down and I will do the best I can.
These 5 teams caught my attention because they all 5 teams finished in the Top 50 in Team Scoring according to the NCAA Football Statistics. Furthermore, they all made the Top 50 without having a single individual player rate in the top 50 as a QB, RB, WR, or Total Offense. I will examine returning players, their performances, recruits, players lost, last years schedule, this years schedule, and anything else I think of along the way. These are not teams I am all that familiar with so this will be a test. This is what research is all about so this will be a test of sorts. As always, my breakdowns are open for input and criticism. The end result is to get as accurate a picture as possible on a team that you are not necessarily familiar with. It is not easy but very worthwhile. I will update these 5 breakdowns after spring practice and hopefully again a few weeks before the season opens. Update: I have since discovered that only 4 teams fit this description. Breakdowns for those four teams are posted below. Last edited by elmo; 02-15-2010 at 11:06 PM.. |
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02-14-2010, 02:00 PM
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#14 |
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Banned
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Michigan - 2010 Breakdown
Michigan Wolverines
General: Rich Rodriguez enters his 3rd year as head coach. The OC Calvin Magee was a finalist for the head coaching job at Magee followed Rodriguez over from 2009 Season – Michigan won it’s first 4 games and lost it’s last 5 games. They finished the season 5-7. ATS they were 5-6. Michigan lost 3 games by 6 or less: Mich St (20-26), Iowa (28-30), and Purdue (36-38). So with a little luck their best shot had they won those 3 would have been a 8-4 record. Had they won those three we might be looking at Michigan a little differently. Losses: On offense they lose their top 2 rushers Minor and Brown but return 8 players who had touches LY. QB’s Robinson and Forcier had 187 rushes between them and the two RB’s they are losing had 177 rushes so that should be taken into consideration. Michigan did sign RB Stephen Hopkins (Double Oak, Offense: The offense losses their top 2 RB’s and 3 starting OL. They do return 8 of their top 11 OL and Defense: The defense finished #77 in the nation LY and only Purdue and Indiana finished lower in the Big 10. They lose all-everything DE Brandon Graham. Safety Jordan Kovacs and LB Craig Roh return after having stellar freshman seasons. Overall: A team that under ideal circumstances could have gone 8-4 but finished 5-7. A team that still managed to finish in the top 50 as a team in scoring offense. You have to take into consideration that Update: while checking out TO margins down below I noticed that Michigan ranked 115 out of 120 teams in that category. A turn around in the turnovers might great change the fortune of the Wolvrines in 2010. Last edited by elmo; 02-15-2010 at 09:22 AM.. |
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02-14-2010, 03:20 PM
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Steele - 2009 teams most like to improve (retrospect)
I should begin by saying that Phil Steele makes available to the public as much accurate data as anyone, probably more. His credibility in this regard is top of the line although his success as a handicapper has lagged lately. His philsteele.com puts on a daily blog that is full of great info and stats. I check it almost daily especially during the season. His preseason magazine is the best in my opinion. It is the only outside source I use and trust. With all that said I want to go over his list of the 22 teams he predicted were most likely to improve in 2009 (ref. his magazine p 19). I will not list the teams but I just want to point out how point of view may differ as to how accurate his forecast was and what benefit it would have been to you and me.
To his credit Steele listed 22 teams and in fact 15 teams did improve their record. However only 5 of his top 11 improved while 10 of his next 11 did. So he missed some of his top picks, in fact more than half. His list included 11 teams (half of the 22 he picked) that entered 2009 with records of 5-7. One might think that this group just on the surface had a good chance to improve being so close to .500 already. Those 11 teams finished 55-77 in 2008. Those same 11 teams finished 2009 64-74. So in reality that group only won 9 more games than they did in 2008. That takes a little of the luster off of that success. Yes, 15 of 22 teams improved but not by that much. In terms of being technically correct that is 68% of the teams improved their records. However, the margin of increase was virtually insignificant as a group. If you went into the 2009 season thinking these teams were going to make large turnarounds and you put your money on those teams that 68% was not going to put money in your pocket. I remember on week one as momentum built up for Illinois over Mizzou, N.C. St over S.Car, Colorado over Col St, and UTEP over Buff. All four were on Steele's list and all three lost outright and ATS. Illinois was #1 on Steele's list, UTEP #5, N.C. St #6 and Colorado #8. Steele did hit a homerun on SMU who went from 1-11 to 8-5 and Ohio who went from 4-8 to 9-5. So this is just a word to the wise. You might not have picked up on this had I not brought it up. The main thing is not to put all your trust into something that is arbitrary at best. Do your own homework and scrutinize everything you read leading up to next season. Like I said before, I use Steele's stats and info religiously but I do scrutinize it. This is not to try to run down Steele in any way and I have a great appreciation for the amount of time and energy his staff puts into their efforts. Last edited by elmo; 02-15-2010 at 09:19 AM.. |
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02-14-2010, 08:51 PM
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#16 |
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Mich State - 2010 Breakdown
General: HC Mark Dantonio goes into his 4th year with a lot on his plate.
Back in November 2009 11 players were involved in an on-campus fight. 4 of those players are no longer on the team and the legal process is still continuing (best I know) for most if not all of the others. Dantonio must move the team forward from that embarrassment. He was proud of the fact that none of this years committments decommitted and sees this as a plus as far as their character goes, something his team needs at this point and time. They are looking for a new RB coach since Dan Enos has moved on to be HC at C Michigan. 2009 - Michigan St finished at 6-7 SU and 5-7 ATS. They beat N Dame and almost beat Iowa (13-15). The team finished #36 in scoring offense (without any individual in a top 50 ranking) and #67 in scoring defense. Defense is the sore spot right now. They lost their first 3 games by 13 total points and lost to Iowa by 2 later in the season. So they are very competitive and any improvement on defense could put them back closer to their 9-4 record of 2008. Losses: They lose a good PK. I am showing them returning all their QB's, 12 of 14 RB's who carried the ball LY including Caper and Baker their top 2 RB's. They lose their top receiver, Blair White, but return 14 of 16 receivers who caught at least 1 ball LY. Offense: The offense returns virtually everyone and should be able to improve on their 29.69 ppg avg. According to my tally, Mich St returns 29 of their top 39 players from their offensive depth chart. 11 of their 21 recruits will line up on the offensive side including RB Nick Hill who is small but is already being compared to Mike Hart. Hill ran for more than 4000 yds in his last 2 yrs in HS. QB recruit Joe Boisture may not help immediately but may be an asset in the future. Outside of WR Blair White everyone who scored a TD LY returns. That is very encouraging. They did lose 3 starters in the OL so that is an area of concern Defense: The defense finished #67 in scoring defense LY giving up 26.31 ppg. Mich St landed DE/LB William Gholston, a solid pass rusher who had 27 sacks his Sr yr in HS. They also landed LB Max Bullough who comes from a heralded family of solid football players and coaches. I found 30 of their top 38 players returning on defense. They have LB Greg Jones returnng for his Sr having decided not to go in this years draft. Overall: Mich St must get through the Nov debacle and move on. Sounds like the freshman are a solid base for the future and their character may help as well. Not hard to imagine that LY's fall was due to losing close games as described above. I see no reason for their offensive output to falter so if their defense improves and with a little luck (or hard work) in the offseason maybe they should improve record wise in 2010. Only Wisconsin in the Big 10 outscored them LY. Dantonio is an old school disciplinarian so this team may be one to keep your eyes on for sure. Last edited by elmo; 02-16-2010 at 09:03 AM.. |
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02-14-2010, 10:54 PM
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Banned
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Turnovers - A brief look at 2009
I compared the ATS record of the NCAA top 10 rated teams in TO margin vs the bottom 10.
The top ten were in order: Air Force, Rutgers, Boise St., Alabama, Ohio St, Arkansas, Ohio, Middle Tenn, E. Carolina, Pittsburgh. These teams went 79-46 ATS (63%) Of course it is impossible to forecast TO's. In hindsight Mid Tenn went 10-3 ATs which shows even the oddsmakers never caught up with them. Even Higher profile teams Boise St, Alabama, and Ohio St went 9-4 which shows that oddsmakers never caught up with them either. The Bottom ten were from bottom up: Miami-O, Tulane, Georgia, N. Texas, W. Kentucky, Michigan, N.C. St, Hawaii, Toledo, and S.D. State. Those teams went 48-62 ATS (44%) So there is a relationship between TO's and winning ATS. Since T.O.'s are unpredictable from game to game much less season to season this is just something to think about. You might ask yourself how TO's might have turned things around for the top and bottom respectively. I might get deeper into this later in the offseason but I just thought I would throw that out just for a change of pace. Last edited by elmo; 05-10-2010 at 03:02 PM.. |
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02-15-2010, 09:15 PM
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Florida St - 2010 Breakdown
General: The minute Bobby Bowden announced his retirement and Jimbo Fisher was selected as the new HC (officially) it seems the fortunes are beginning to turn in Tallahassee. They came out of nowhere to finish with a top 10 recruiting class. He kept three coaches including OL coach Rick Trickett who will return every OL position at least 2 deep. Mark Stoops will be the new DC. He also brought in a new strength coach and much emphasis will be put into the off season training this year.
2009 Season - the Seminoles went 9-4 in 2008 and fell to 7-6 in 2009 (4-8 ATS). Christian Ponder only played in 9 games which I need to emphasize. While no individual player ranked in the top 50 in any individual offensive category Ponder would have. In order to be ranked by the NCAA a player must have played in 75% of his teams games. So that needs to be taken into account as Ponder should return in good conditiion for 2010. It should be noted that Florida St will conduct a full scale inter squad came this year instead of a controlled scrimmage as was the venue. Losses: The noles don't lose much as they return virtually every starter if TE Caz Puirowski gets a medical hardship for an extra year of eligibility. They do lose CB Patrick Robinson, LB Dekoda Watson, and on the defensive side. The noles return 26 of their top 28 players on offense and 24 of their top 33 on defense. Their recruiting class (rated as high as #6 and includes the no. 1 rated CB Lamarcus Joyner, LB Christian Jones (son of Willie Jones former Fl St player), LB Tevin Smith, and WR Christian Green who was the #5 rated receiver nationally. Offense: If Ponder stays healthy Florida St should move up in their offensive scoring ranking (#33 in scoring offense). They return players who rushed for 26 of 27 of LY's TD's. They return players who caught 12 of 16 TD passes LY. They have no where to go but up. A stronger and more experienced OL should be a strong foundation and give the noles an edge. Ponder, if he stays healthy, could lead this offense a long ways. LY they averaged 30.38 ppg. Defense: It seems like all of the teams I am breaking down need to improve on defense. They recruited 14 of their 24 signees on the defensive side of the ball. They return 24 of their top 33 on defense but that defense allowed an avg of 30 ppg and ranked #94 in scoring defense. We will see what the younger Stoops can do but if nothing else he will bring a fresh attitude and be able to relate to the players. Should see some improvement on that side of the ball. Overall: I guess you could say that this is Jumbo's second year as head coach but at least now he has his own hand picked group of assistant. They have 7 home games this year which helps although they travel to OU this year. Other non-conference games are with BYU and Florida so they did themselves no favors in the scheduling department. Fisher has his students going to classes, is holding study halls, and has a new strength coach to change things around this year. It is all up to the defense but their strength of schedule is a real obstacle this year. However, ATS they may do well and they could and should improve on their 4-8 ATS record of 2009. This team is loaded with talent and 2011 may be the year they turn it around but don't count them out in 2010. Last edited by elmo; 02-15-2010 at 10:07 PM.. |
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02-15-2010, 09:19 PM
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CTG Moderator
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Elmo, Myron Rolle was @ Oxford last yr and was not part of the 2009 defense, just a heads up.
great stuff here though |
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02-15-2010, 10:06 PM
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Banned
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02-15-2010, 10:09 PM
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CTG Moderator
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02-15-2010, 10:36 PM
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Banned
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Air Force - 2010 Breakdown
General: HC Troy Calhoun moves into his 4th season without LY's OC and DC. It is very difficult to accumulate the kind of data and info I would like to on the Air Force team. I cannot find a depth chart on them for starters. They do not officially release the names of their recruits until they actually report to school. They desperately need OL as only one starter returns so that is one area of concern.
2009 Season - The Falcons went 8-5 in 2008. In 2009 they went 8-5 also (7-5 ATS). It was all on the ground as always for the Falcons who put it on Houston in their bowl game 47-20 (another ML dog under 6.5). AF led then nation in TO margin and that may be hard to repeat. Losses: They lost to Navy in OT 13-16 and another one to Utah in OT 16-23 or they would have had a very successful season indeed. Offense: AF finished #36 in scoring offense in 2009 averaging 29.69 ppg. As mentioned above they are hurting in the OL but return a lot of playmakers. AF only threw for 8 TD in 2009 but return their top 3 QB's and players who caught 7 of those 8 TD throws. The running the ball is the name of the game and all of their top rushers who accounted for 30 off their 31 rushing TD's LY return. BUT.....you have to have an OL and passing is not a factor for the Falcons. Tim Jefferson returns to lead the attack and Jared Tew and Asher Clark return and were the top two rushers with 970 and 865 yds respectively. New OC but we all know what offense they will run. May start out slower than LY until the OL can develop and gain experience. It should be noted that although no individual AF player ranked in the top 50 in any of the four offensive categories AF did finish 3rd in rushing offense nationally at 283.46 ypg. So if they get it going they are an opposing DC's nightmare. Defense: AF finished #10 in scoring defense LY giving up only 15.69 ppg so losing their DC may hurt. However, Matt Wallerstedt who was their asst HC and inside LB coach LY will assume the DC post this year. They do return two incoming Sr's at LB who were injured in 2009, Ken Lamendola and Patrick Hennessey so that will help. It is reported they will also land LB Austin Arias from Peoria, Arizona who was a two way player in HS but projects as a 3 star LB at the next level. Overall: Truthfully I am at a loss without a depth chart to reference. Maybe one will come out after spring practice. This is the highest rated defense of the five teams I am breaking down. After watching the OU OL struggle LY I will never take it for granted that you can reload an OL. Breaking in a new OC and replacing 3 OL is too much to dissect at this point. There is no doubt this team can score with adequate blocking but the defense will need some sustained drives and a little rest to keep at #10 in the scoring defensive rankings. The #1 ranking in turnover margin is more than likely going south in 2010 also and without the benefit of TO's victories sometimes come a little harder. Military academies can always count on kids with character and you can always expect great effort but it may be hard to match last years 8-5 record. Last edited by elmo; 02-23-2010 at 11:08 PM.. |
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02-15-2010, 11:23 PM
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#23 |
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Banned
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Just a note or two
I thought I would explain why I focus on scoring offense instead of total offense. The main reason is that as a handicapper and someone who wagers I am interested in points not yards. Total yardage totals can be misleading sometimes but they could be something to take into consideration the following year if a team had an unusually high negative TO margin, etc. Same holds true for scoring defense vs. total defense although many teams rate high in both categories.
I am a big believer in points scored LY by players returning the following yr. Everyone focuses on returning QB's early in the year but actually teams like the 4 I just brokedown have proven offenses and lots of returning players who have scored. Except for AF, the other three teams I broke down need to shore up their defenses and Michigan needs to cut down on TO's. Last year I heard the word "reload" thrown around way too often. I will take a team with proven players who have scored over a team that looks good on paper and is unproven, especially early in the year. Last year I spent a lot of time trying to get a jump on the first two or three weeks of the season. I did not waste my time but many teams were hard to read. The one thing I learned is not to count on experienced players to necessarily make a quantum leap their Sr. year. Case in point, Juice Williams. Do not discount the possibilies of injuries. Case in point, Sam Bradford. Do not expect teams to "reload" if the attrition is high. Case in point, Southern Cal. Cincinnatti lost 10 starters on defense but did not miss a beat. That is not a team anyone expected to "reload". It is a long time till week one. I am going to slow down a little and find another area to concentrate on. BOL |
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02-16-2010, 12:46 AM
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CTG Super Moderator
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I'm a big believer in offense for the first 3-4 weeks of season as well...especially at QB.
Great stuff elmo, great job with the MSU and UM breakdowns too |
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02-16-2010, 09:54 AM
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02-16-2010, 10:07 AM
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Doing your own research
Doing your own research is not difficult but finding useful sources for info and stats can be a process of trial and error. I have found the following sources to be the ones I rely on most:
philsteele.com - during the season or offseason you find things on his site you cannot find anywhere else. He has a daily blog and you can access prior blogs in his archive. Right now he has access to Spring Central which has several different topics such as returning starters, coaching changes, etc. Very useful and reliable goldsheet.com- I use this source for ATS info. They have logs and databases that go way back and during the season are a good source for weekly statistics. rivals.com - just click on College Football - I usually just go to teams and there you can access stats, schedules, rosters, get team reports and even depth charts most of the time. Great off season source of info and stats. espn.com - Same stuff as rivals more or less and you go to teams and work you way around to what you are looking for. collegefootballpoll.com - odd little site I found LY but has some great stuff you cannot find anywhere else. This is the source I used for opening odds for the ML dogs under 6.5 or less research. NCAA Football Stats (just google it) has all the team and individual ranking for every offensive and defensive category. cfbstats.com - similar to the NCAA site stat wise These are not all that is out there but these are the ones I use most often. With spring practices about to begin it is a good time to check these sites out. Many schools will update their depth charts when spring drills end. You can also access each individual schools home page for football and get insider info and some stats that you may not be able to find anywhere else and are obviously a reliable source. So if so inclined do your own research. You have plenty of time and it will pay off in the end. BOL Last edited by elmo; 02-23-2010 at 11:11 PM.. |
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02-17-2010, 03:11 PM
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Banned
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Another diversion
I start off breaking something down and wind up going in another direction. I am studying the top 25 from the final BCS standings and I am looking at how they got there and comparing their SU record vs. ATS record, etc. and a few things started popping out at me.
I remember how on week one Rutgers was favored over Cinn and no one could buy into a Cinn defense with only one returning player no matter who was quarterbacking. Cinn won that game outright and went on to#4 in scoring offense at years end. Well, how did that defense fare. They wound up #44 and only Oregon and GT did worse of the top 25 teams. Their avg margin of victory was 15.54 ppg. Cinn also wound up #13 in TO Margin so they were very opportunistic. It seems like TO's are nothing you can count on but in a lot of cases it goes down the next year. So even with a prolific offense the TO's padded that victory margin no doubt. In 2010 they may not be so fortunate or as prolific on offense so that is something to keep in mind especially ATS. Despite have a SU record of 12-1 they were 5-7 ATS even with the benefit of the plus TO margin. I mentioned GTand their avg margin of victory was 9.00 ppg. and they ranked #22 in TO margin. So again playing it that close the TO's played a big part in their success. This paid off with them going 11-3 SU and 8-5 ATS. Will they be so fortunate in 2010? LY their def was #56 in scoring defense so they were running on empty at times. Another team that caught my attention was Mississippi. Miss was 9-4 SU and 6-5 ATS. Their avg margin of victory was 11.85 ppg. They finished #102 (out of 120) in TO margin. They were just a few bounces away from improving both SU and ATS. Texas Tech was 9-4 SU and 7-5 ATS. Their avg margin of victory was 14.54. I have a feeling that they would have fared much better had they not finished #94 in TO margin although their scoring defense ranked on 41st. It is amazing that Iowa (who finished #7 in the BCS) had only the #86 ranked scoring offense LY. They countered by having the #8 ranked scoring defense but their avg margin of victory was only 7.77 ppg. They finished #51 in TO margin so even with the low margin of victory with a little luck they might have done better. They wound up 11-2 SU and 9-3 ATS so it is hard to feel sorry for them I guess. Iowa (avg 23.15 ppg in scoring offense), LSU (24.85), and Nebraska (25.14) were the lowest scoring teams in the top 25. 7 of the top 10 in scoring offense finished in the top 25 (Boise St, Texas, Cincinnatti, TCU, Texas Tech, Oregon, and Florida) Oregon (avg 23.77 ppg in scoring defense) and G Tech (24.79 ppg) finished worse than the top 50 in that category. |
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02-17-2010, 04:58 PM
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#28 |
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lets get these pesos in 2010
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nice work...thank you for the time spent doing this
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02-17-2010, 11:15 PM
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02-18-2010, 12:17 PM
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#30 |
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Punting
I think better records should be kept on punting and that Net Yardage should be the barometer. I can only find rankings on avg punting yards and in order to be ranked you have to played in a minimum of 75% of your teams games and have a minimum of 3.6 punts per game. Go figure.
Of the punters listed 70 of them averaged over 40 yards per kick. Only 5 averaged 45 yds or better and only three of them return: Drew Butler (Georgia 48.05), Tress Way (Oklahoma 45.69), and Quinn Sharp (Oklahoma St 45.12) so I guess those are the elite punters returning this year. Reid Forrest of Washington State launched 86 punts to lead the nation in number of punts as far as I could find. He is returning and rumors are that he is just getting warmed up. |
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02-18-2010, 06:19 PM
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#31 |
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CTG Super Moderator
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Man the kicking game is the most overlooked thing in sports.
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02-19-2010, 01:29 PM
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#32 |
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Banned
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Scoring Defense - some comments
Last year Nebraska burst onto the scene and came out of no wher to finish in #14 in the nation with virtually offense. Obviously their defense was they key. In 2008 Neb gave up 28.54 ppg and improved to 10.43 ppg which accounts for much of their success.
By the same token So. Cal was rated #4 in LY's preseason poll and would up out of the picture as their defense allowed 19.85 ppg compared to 9.00 in 2008. So it works both ways. Better defense better record, worse defense worse record. I began looking around at teams who might improve on defense and visa versa in 2010. I came up with the following: Miami Fl allowed 24.15 in 2008 and lowered it to 22.15 in 2009. With 8 returning on defense it might continue to go down in 2010. Missouri allowed 27.21 in 2008 and lowered it to 25.38 in 2009 and has 9 returning on defense. Washington allowed 38.58 ppg in 2008 and lowered it to 26.67 in 2009 and has 8 returning on defense. Can they get lower? Michigan sturggled defensively but still managed to improve to 25.5 from 28.92 and have 8 back and a nice group of incoming freshmen. Texas A & M returns 19 starters with 9 returning on a defense that improved to 33.54 in 2009 from 37.42 in 2008. Last but not least is Syracuse who gave up 32.67 in 2008 and only 27.92 in 2009. They have 20 starters back and 10 are on defense. On the other end of the stick Alabama improved to 11.71 in 2009 from 14.29 in 2008 but return only 2 starters on defense. Can they reload on that same level? Oklahoma returns on 4 def starters after improving from 24.5 in 2008 to 14.54 in 2009. Reload? LSU made a big improvement in 2009 at 16.23 from 24.15 in 2009 and return only 4 on defense. Everyone has their eyes on Boise St in 2010. In 2008 they gave up only 12.62 and in 2009 it rose to 17.14. However, they have 10 returning on defense and maybe an easier schedule in 2010. Maybe you can come up with some more but I do think that teams who improve on defense in 2010 are they kind of teams to follow. |
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02-19-2010, 03:06 PM
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#33 |
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New resarch site
Vegaskyle just put me onto a new source for research, cfbstats.com. I like it. I will look for some new stuff in there. In fact, I already found something I will investigate further, national rankings for Tackling.
I just glanced over the 2009 total for the leading tacklers and this jumped out at me. Houston finished #95 in scoring defense yet had 3 of the top 27 tacklers in the nation. Huh? Yep # 3 - Marcus McFraw (So), #7 - C. J. Cavness (Sr), # 27 - and Nick Saenz (So). Wow, they must have made every tackle. Rice finished#120 in scoring defense (dead last) yet Travis Bradshaw a sophmore DB ranked #17 individually averaging just over 10 tackles a game. I wonder how many TD's he saved or it might have been worse for Rice. Oddly enough the leading tackler was Carmen Messina a Soph LB from New Mexico. NM finished #113 nationally in scoring defense. Amazing. Back with more later. Last edited by elmo; 02-19-2010 at 09:34 PM.. |
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02-22-2010, 03:49 PM
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#34 |
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No away games until Oct
I was going over the 2010 schedules (not all are complete yet) and found some teams that start off at home and do not play an away game in the month of September.
BC - They play 2 in a row, have an open date, and then 2 more at home (VT and ND) and do not play an away game until they go to NC St on 10-9 Texas A & M - the play 3 straight at home, an open week, then go to Okla St on Oct 2 Illinois - open with 3 straight at home, an open wee, host Ohio St and play their first away game at Penn St on Oct 9 Ohio St - Open with 4 straight at home then go to Ill on 10-2 Tenn - Open with 4 straight at home (includes Oregon and Florida, and go to LSU on 10-2 I just thought playing no away games in the month of September was odd. Found one more: Oklahoma St - Opens up with 4 straight at home and travels to La-Lafeyette on Oct 8 Last edited by elmo; 05-10-2010 at 03:06 PM.. |
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02-23-2010, 01:15 PM
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#35 |
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Taking a look at Army in 2010
Last year I was really glad to see Army hire Rich Ellerson. In 2008 Army went 3-9 and LY under Ellerson and a new system they went 5-7. On the surface that may not seem like a lot of improvement. However, when you consider that Ellerson inserted a new offensive system and had to work with what was already there in the way of player personnel, it is really impressive. If you take a closer look it is even more surprising. In 2008, Army passed for 555 yds and rushed for 2910 yds. In 2009, Army passed for 861 yds and ran for 2457 yds. So Army had a slight drop off (147 yds) in offense. What they actually did was increase their passing from 16% of the offense to 35% of the offense. In the process Army won two more games. So slowly Ellerson took what he had and began working his way towards a more balanced attack.
What is more impressive is that he did it with a Freshman QB. LY Trent Steelman became the first QB in Army history to start for an entire season. Army has already begun spring practice and everyone, including Steelman is much more comfortable with the system and the emphasis is more on execution this time around. LY there was a shock factor with a new coach, new system, etc. but this year is a different story. Plan on them adding a lot more play action this year. With 8 starters back on both offense and defense this may be a team to watch in 2010. They may run under the radar for a while but if they improve like I think they will under a HC who knows how to win, I can see this team doing very well in 2010, especially ATS. This a team to keep your eye on. Last edited by elmo; 02-23-2010 at 02:07 PM.. |
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02-23-2010, 04:26 PM
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#36 |
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Penthouse to the Outhouse
Last year Tulsa started out the 2008 season 8-0 and wound up 10-3. In 2009 the Golden Hurricanes dropped to 5-7. Tulsa led the nation in total yards in 2008 with 7978 total yards and finished 2009 with 4921 total yards (in 2008 they passed for 4338 yds). They returned 5 on offense but had to reload at QB and returned 8 on defense. In 2010 Tulsa returns 9 on offense including the QB and 4 on defense. I thought I would try to reconstruct what happened and see how a team could fall so far and look and see if they have what it gets to get back to where they were in 2008.
In 2008 Tulsa gave up 29.08 ppg and in 2009 gave up 27.33 ppg. In 2008 Tulsa scored 47.39 ppg and in 2009 scored 29.25 ppg. Tulsa signed 22 players and 18 of them play defense (6 DL, 7 Safeties, 6 LB, and 2 CB). HC Todd Graham feels good about this years recruits. Obviously Tulsa needs to improve on offense. They brought in Chad Morris, a Texas Highschool coaching legend) to revamp the offense. G.J. Kinne returns at QB and virtually everyone else who contributed offensively returns also. In 2008, RB Tarian Adams rushed for 1523 yds. In 2009 the top 6 rushers for Tulsa totaled 1576 yds. Tulsa brought in a new DB coach, Van Malone, from Texas A & M. Malone played at Texas and 5 yrs in the NFL. He is also an excellent recruiter. This year Tulsa hosts Bowling Green and plays at Oklahoma St and at Notre Dame in addition to their CUSA schedule. It will be a tough schedule and expectations may not be as high this year from everyone on the outside looking in but from their perspective Tulsa will be trying to get back their respectabilty and are in a better position to do it in 2010 than they were in 2009. I think they have a shot at a winning season but not a 10-3. That is at least 2 years away. Last edited by elmo; 02-23-2010 at 11:01 PM.. |
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02-24-2010, 01:27 PM
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#37 |
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Up or Down
Some teams performances may go up or down and some of this is somewhat predictable if you look closely.
Last year Clemson finished #74 in total offense yet somehow managed to finish #28 in scoring offense. They finished #28 in TO margin so that helped. In 2010 they return 6 on off with the QB returning and 6 on defense. They may have trouble maintaining the #74 ranking in total offense but there is no way they finish as high as #28 in scoring offense with or without an edge in turnovers. Their scoring production is going down. Last year Pitt finished #52 in total offense and somehow managed to finish #21 in scoring offense which was aided by the fact that they finished #10 in TO margin. This year they return 4 on off with no QB returning and 6 on defense. Their scoring production is going down in 2010. Texas finished #29 in total offense and #3 in scoring offense and finished #15 in TO margin. With 6 returning on off with no returning QB and 7 on defense they will be hard pressed in 2010 to match 2009. Their scoring production is going down in 2010. Air Force finished #66 in total offense and #36 in scoring offense and was #1 in TO margin. They have 5 returning on offense including the QB and 6 returning on defense. Their scoring production is going down in 2010. Rutgers finished # 97 in total offense and #52 in scoring offense and was #2 in TO margin. They return 6 on off including the QB and 6 on defense. Their scoring production is going down in 2010. Ohio finished #106 in total offense and #78 in scoring offense and was #7 in TO margin. they return 6 on off with no returning QB and 6 on defense. Their scoring production is going down in 2010. There are some teams that should increase their scoring production in 2010. In 2009 Miami-O finished #84 in total offense and #116 in scoring offense while finishing #120 (dead last) in TO margin. They return 10 on off with the QB returning and 9 on defense. Their scoring production is going up in 2010. In 2009 N. Texas finished #36 in total offense and #63 in scoring offense and finished #117 in TO margin. In 2010 they return 10 on offense with QB returning and 8 on defense. Their scoring production is going up in 2010. Utah State finished #12 in total offense but on #47 in scoring offense. They finished #24 in TO margin and while that may go down they do return 7 on off including the QB and 8 on defense. I think they can increase their scoring production in 2010. The worst example I could find of a team who could move the ball but not score accordingly was Hawaii. In 2009 they finished #14 in total offense and only #89 in scoring offesne. Again, TO margin did not go their way as they finsihed #113 in that department. Surely they will do better with the TO margin in 2010 and they return 7 on off with no QB returning and 7 on defense. There are other examples but when a team can move the ball and are not scoring a relative amount of points then something is wrong. TO margin is one factor and there are others that cannot be quantified as accurately. If they return enough firepower and cut down on TO's they should be more productive in the scoring department. Conversly, some teams got more scoring production than their total offense figures would have led you to believe. Again, most of them had good TO margins. Without returning sufficient firepower and without more succes in the TO department these teams should be less productive in 2010. Last edited by elmo; 05-10-2010 at 03:07 PM.. |
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02-24-2010, 06:56 PM
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#38 | |
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02-24-2010, 11:51 PM
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#39 | |
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I'll give you the others but Austin was not our best OL. The guy didn't come close to living up to his preseason expectations and his drop in the draft will show that. Apparently he had some family issues that led to a lack of concentration on football. It certainly showed on the field |
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02-25-2010, 09:38 AM
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#40 |
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Thanks for the response guys. I am just going off of the numbers. What you guys brought to the table put names and faces to the numbers. That reinforces my opinion and that is what this is all about. I could be wrong about one or more and I have some more I can throw out there that could improve or go south as far as scoring goes. I am not as confident about them but if you and others will go over them we could cull the list and maybe gain an edge that way.
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