Israeli league thread

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took off two units from Over bet and a unit from Haifa bet.
It's no problem to find odds that allow that or even take Under 162 in Pinnacle and have 2 points middle option...
I rather not put all eggs in one basket in Ramat Gan and chase the Over to Afula if needed without losing too much and Haifa I still like, but decided to lower by 1 unit, since the odds are still allowing us to get a nice profit in case we win.

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Holon - Naharia

Holon will win and cover here. I can't explain the loss to Ramat Gan at home in the final round, but it probably was on of those games. This time they in a must win and Holon will have the entire crowd behind them and it will be crazy in there. If we add the fact that the league prefers Holon in the league, it will be very easy for the refs to surrender to the crowd and make many home favoring calls.
Holon also the better team. Not sure if they got the better coach, but he is the second coach in the last 30 year that won the Championship title with a team other than Maccabi, so while I still think Jino is the better coach, really not by much. The players on the other hand are better in Holon and by much.
Missed the better line, because I hoped the line will go down to -3, but still, see no reason for this bet to lose.
Would take the bet up to -6 points, no more.
Holon -5, 1.95 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Maccabi TA - Bney Ha Sharon

Last season, the Finals had Maccabi TA and Haifa playing each other. What was the common between the teams? They both lost in the first game of the playoffs at home, but won the next game on the road.
This season the Finals still far from us, but again, TA and Haifa lost the first game at home. Haifa already won on the road and today probably will be TA's turn.
Maccabi just too good of a team to lose this one and they will try to win this one with ease. Last year, after losing the first game, Maccabi responded with 17 points win on the road.
But I won't take Maccabi with the line. First of all, Bney Ha Sharon are a stubborn team, so it's dangerous. Second, Perkins, Andersen and Wiz went to a club and stayed there till 2 am. More than the fatigue they might feel, it just sends the wrong message to everyone both in their team and in the rival team.
I will take a bet that combines most of the angles for this game and this is the Under. First of all, the Over in Game 1 was mostly due to Bney Ha Sharon scoring 89 points. Today I believe we will see them scoring 70 points at the most. Maccabi on the other hand should score between 83 and 87 points, so right total here is 154 - 157 points (I added few points in case Bney Ha Sharon will manage to score 71 - 72 points...
Would take the bet all the way till 160 points.
Under 163.5 - 1.87 odds - 7 units play - 888sport/Bluesq

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Nahariya - Holon

Holon are the better team between the two, no doubt even. They started the season awful, but brought the right players and if they wouldn't have lost few games they should have won, they would have been in much better position. Still, Nahariya are in trouble. Their players thought of not showing up for the second game in Holon because they didn't get paid. Holon fans may actually be the majority in Nahariya tonight.
Holon lead twice by double digits in Nahariya and lost. They need to win one of the two games in Nahariya and they will. The crowd, the motivation, the quality, thre refs, all in favor of Holon and Nahariya will need to give 120% to have a chance to win both home games.
Holon to win, 2.80 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

Maccabi TA - Bney Ha Sharon

After the loss to Ashkelon in the first game of the playoffs last year, Maccabi responded with 17, 23 and 32 points win. The problem is that Bney Ha Sharon are a better team than Ashkelon last year, so I believe that Maccabi should win by a bigger margin all three games, just to send a messege to the league. Bney Ha Sharon should bring the full focus from Maccabi and focused Maccabi should win by 30+ points.
Maccabi fans were really unhappy in Game 1 and today Maccabi needs to make it up to them.
The Israeli roster of Bney Ha Sharon is so weak, that I just can't see any real chance for them to do anything.
Maccabi -16.5, 1.90 - 6 units play - Stan James

Holon to win + Maccabi -16.5, 4.94 units - 2 units play - Stan James

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Holon - Naharia

6 points line is a lot for two teams that had most of the games pretty even. Still, Holon lead most of the game by double digits in Game 2 and I feel it will be the same tonight. Holon still the better team in my opinion and so far, home team been really dominant and it was Holon the only team that managed to take the line on the road.
I won't write again for the 6th time this season about match ups between the teams, but Holon now with a back to the wall and the last thing they want at home is to go in to the final minute in a relegation game knowing that Naharia still in the game.
Holon -5.5, 1.90 - 7 units - Stan James

Netania - Haifa

I can't say that the odds are wrong here. I think that Netania should be slight favorites and they are. Still, Haifa in my opinion are the better team and they won pretty easily in both games in Netania this season. I think they are too relaxed at home. They been trailing by double digits in all three home games against Netania. In one they ended up winning easily, in another they came back and even were up by 9 points but lost and one they got trashed.
On the road that sense of urgency is with them from the start and it shows.
Still, it's hard to bet against such a home team like Netania to lose both home games, but you could have said the same about Haifa.
So far I avoided taking Haifa at home, but on the road, I think that as long as Haifa has odds of 2.1 or higher, they got value.
Haifa to win, 2.30 odds - 3.5 units play - Stan James

Bney Ha Sharon - Maccabi TA

The line is wrong here, but still got value. Maccabi actually does a better job on the road than at home. Last year's playoffs, Maccabi won much easier on the road against Ashkelon than at home. I think that just like Haifa, that sense of urgency, the need to play good ball from the beginning is what causes them to play much better on the road.
Still, having said that, 14.5 points line is huge. I think that -12.5 should have been the line, but I think that most of the chances Maccabi will put this one to bed early, winning by 20+ points.
Still, low units only.
Tel Aviv -7.5 at HT, 1.80 odds - 3 units - Stan James

Tel Aviv -14.5 + Haifa to win + Holon -5.5 - 8.3 odds - 1 units play - Stan James

Ramat Gan - Afula

I don't know how I forgot to take the Over bet in the 3rd game in Afula, but I will take it today.
Teams with the back to the wall, but both know how to attack and not really how to defend.
Both teams will also fight till the end. A loss for Afula means to lose the series, so they will have no problems fouling at the end of the game even if the game will be almost surely lost and Ramat Gan if they don't win, will have to play in Afula the 5th game and that is something they will do their best to avoid.
Both teams are 85+ points teams and I don't see any reason for it to change.
Over 166 points, 1.85 odds - 5 units play - Unibet

[divol]

Bad job this round.

Will hope to finish the first round well in the final 5th game...

[VK]

you'll get em.

[divol]

My plays today shouldn't surprise anyone, since I will take the same bets I been taking so far in the first round of the playoffs.

Nahariya - Holon

I been saying from Game 1 that Holon will stay in the league. I took Holon with the line and ML, but they lost despite leading 38 minutes of the game, although they did cover so was even money in the end. Game 2 took them with the line and they won and covered. Game 3 took them ML and they lead again late in the game, but lost. Game 4 took them with the line and they won and covered again. So today is the big day for them and for me as a bettor as well. A loss and they will be relegated and we will end up with very small profit from the series, but a win and they remain in the league and we make really nice profit from this series.
I wrote mostly about the bets, simply because to be honest, don't have anything more to add to what I wrote in the first 4 games of the series.
Holon was the better team in 140 minutes from 160 minutes so far and yet they are 2 - 2 only. This time they don't need to be the better team, they need to be the winning team. Nahariya got heart, you just can't ignore it. They came from behind in both home games and won, so we know that Holon can play there, but we also know that Nahariya won't back down.
I believe that today we will see really vast majority of Holon fans in the stands, despite road game. They know there no coming back from this game and that last time that Holon relegated, they almost disappeared from the map.
If there justice and if better team deserves the win, than Holon will win this one.
Holon +5.5, 1.85 - 4 units play - Bwin
Holon to win - 2.70 odds - 4 units play - Bwin

Afula - Ramat Gan

I wrote before Game 2 about the rims in Ramat Gan and how they like the feeling of ball going through them, well it goes double for Afula. I haven't seen in the last 3 years more catchy rims than in Afula. I don't know if they bigger than standard or what, but players have noticed it as well and there is no doubt that Afula has the best rims in Israel as far as Over backers go.
So far we have seen two dead Under results, two easy Over results (one was easy only on paper, but still...) and now we have Game 5. The pressure is on, both teams will fight for survival and I have little doubt that both teams won't hesitate to foul to extend the game in the end if needed and that both teams will try to outscore the other, because both teams know that in their case, best defense is offense.
Over 163.5 points, 1.90 odds - 8 units play - Stan James

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2 from 2 to finish the first round of the playoffs and +17.4 units

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Jerusalem - Netania

One bet that caught my eye was unfortunately only in Stan James, but it's Under 171.5 points between Jerusalem and Netania. Three games between the teams this season and the score was 146, 153 and 156 points. That is huge difference between the total suggested and the scores.
On top of that, this is really big game for Jerusalem. The winning team will play in Eurocup and for Jerusalem that believe they are the second team in the country, it's really important to get there.
Netania on the other hand doesn't really want to play in Europe. They said they won't play in Europe and than announced that they will after all. They got small budget, they won't be allowed to play in their home court in Netania and they can really have financial problems if they play in Europe.
So two bets and one interesting option:
Under 170.5 points, 1.80 odds - 6 units play - Stan James
Jerusalem -3.5, 1.90 odds - 4 units play - Stan James
Also, people that have accounts in Stan James, can make an interesting bet, taking Under 171.5 in Stan James and Over 163 in Pinnacle. 7 points middle is huge and can see it happen as well...

Maccabi - Galil

I can admit bad capping and that is what I did in Maccabi - Netania game. Netania's coach, Alfasi really made Gershon angry, I mean really angry before the game and Maccabi reacted. This time, even Gershon is worried. He says the simply truth. Galil are just too nice of a team. He says that the atmosphere is really friendly and he worried that his players will lack the motivation they had against Netania.
Galil also a really good team. They also got in form in the right time, finishing poorly the regular season, but 4 - 0 in the playoffs, covering all four lines so far as well.
I think that Galil can win it. Still, just can't make that bet. But, to take Galil +13 is a good idea I believe. I believe we can see Galil lead or trailing really small even late in the 2nd half tonight.
Galil got great coach, explosive guards and decent big guys.
Galil +13.5, 1.85 - 6 units play - Bwin