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Thread: Week of 06-19-2017 MLB Discussion

  1. #1
    Seasoned Veteran nbafan88's Avatar
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    Default Week of 06-19-2017 MLB Discussion

    The grind continues.

    Don't like much on the short card
    "Excellence is the gradual result of always striving to do better." - Pat Riley

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    Couch Potato Ryno14's Avatar
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    Indians, Pirates, and Royals are my first look leans.

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    Redshirt Senior Johnnyonthespot's Avatar
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    Bundy as a home dog of +144 is fascinating. I dont necessarily disagree. Havent capped it at all but man have the Os been sinking.

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    Couch Potato Montanas's Avatar
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    Astros team total o5 $100

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    Seasoned Veteran nbafan88's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnnyonthespot View Post
    Bundy as a home dog of +144 is fascinating. I dont necessarily disagree. Havent capped it at all but man have the Os been sinking.
    he is an extreme fly ball pitcher..... so will today's weather be a big factor for him? not sure how he has been with humidity + winds out
    "Excellence is the gradual result of always striving to do better." - Pat Riley

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    Redshirt Senior Johnnyonthespot's Avatar
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    I see strong out to right wind, dying off toward evening, dont see slugfest, heck the line is like +160 now.

    What reference do you use to quickly define style of pitcher, i.e. fly/ground fast/finesse, etc ?

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    Couch Potato kdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnnyonthespot View Post
    I see strong out to right wind, dying off toward evening, dont see slugfest, heck the line is like +160 now.

    What reference do you use to quickly define style of pitcher, i.e. fly/ground fast/finesse, etc ?
    Fangraphs has all that. Check under Splits in the Batted Ball category.
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits....=P&season=2017

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    Redshirt Senior Johnnyonthespot's Avatar
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    thanks kdog, appreciate it

    regarding longer historical .baa today

    dickey does well and I think out wind helps him tonight, but ive thought that before
    braves hit cueto
    marlins hit roark
    estrada good
    sanchez and kershaw good
    Pirates have lots and lots of abs vs. garza

  9. #9
    Couch Potato kdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnnyonthespot View Post
    thanks kdog, appreciate it

    regarding longer historical .baa today

    dickey does well and I think out wind helps him tonight, but ive thought that before
    braves hit cueto
    marlins hit roark
    estrada good
    sanchez and kershaw good
    Pirates have lots and lots of abs vs. garza
    This site should help you with the pitcher vs. team stuff. Most people here put WAY too much stock in it though.
    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnnyonthespot View Post
    Bundy as a home dog of +144 is fascinating. I dont necessarily disagree. Havent capped it at all but man have the Os been sinking.
    balt hit 10 homers this weekend....bats are heating up

  11. #11
    Not all those who wander are lost tuck321's Avatar
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    Sanchez is at best average minus on 6+

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    Seasoned Veteran nbafan88's Avatar
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    Past few years the Cubs have been the best Tuesday home team. The padres have been the worst Tuesday road team.
    "Excellence is the gradual result of always striving to do better." - Pat Riley

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    Redshirt Senior Johnnyonthespot's Avatar
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    The Rockies, Dodgers and Dbacks are separated by 1 game and between them have won 16 in a row.

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    Redshirt Senior Johnnyonthespot's Avatar
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    Cards, Tigers, Twins, Orioles beginning the fade, dont think these teams regroup much to make any difference anywhere

    Indians have shifted gears. Are cubs about to?

    Zimmerman has rebounded a bit
    Lean Phils tonight, ttover
    Pitt sees/hits overrated Davies
    gio and volquez, teheran, sale, pineda bad .baa
    liriano, tillman good

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    Giants is a big lean for me. Fish, Pirates, Jays, and A's smaller leans.

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    How can one not look at LAA today? Yanks at home are killer but Angles just knocked Pineda around last week. I like LAA and their RL today
    " If your not cheatin, your not tryin. "

  17. #17
    Not all those who wander are lost tuck321's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryno14 View Post
    Giants is a big lean for me. Fish, Pirates, Jays, and A's smaller leans.
    Since SF seems insane to me reasoning required

  18. #18
    Not all those who wander are lost tuck321's Avatar
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    When I get up will lock in over first 5 in Baltimore

  19. #19
    Not all those who wander are lost tuck321's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Farm View Post
    How can one not look at LAA today? Yanks at home are killer but Angles just knocked Pineda around last week. I like LAA and their RL today
    11-0 on Tuesday

  20. #20
    Not all those who wander are lost tuck321's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88 View Post
    Past few years the Cubs have been the best Tuesday home team. The padres have been the worst Tuesday road team.
    I see Cubs 9-2 to Padres 4-7 with no direction but a definite believer

  21. #21
    Not all those who wander are lost tuck321's Avatar
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    Remember Davies with Pina 2.79. With Bundy 6.29
    Tomlin at Baltimore 7.41

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    Couch Potato Ryno14's Avatar
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    More of a Teheran fade than anything. Dude is just not the same this year. Velocity down. Bad in new ballpark, and bad with Emmel. Of course, Moore is pretty garbage too so that may push me to SF TT, but will definitely be on SF somehow.

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    Not all those who wander are lost tuck321's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryno14 View Post
    More of a Teheran fade than anything. Dude is just not the same this year. Velocity down. Bad in new ballpark, and bad with Emmel. Of course, Moore is pretty garbage too so that may push me to SF TT, but will definitely be on SF somehow.
    I am seeing Moore with Emmel 8 innings 10.13 ERA

  24. #24
    Not all those who wander are lost tuck321's Avatar
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    Cubano a monster SF supporter is not listing SF today.
    Emmel with Teheran 6.08 ERA 26.2 innings
    Atlanta and Over?

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    Seasoned Veteran nbafan88's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tuck321 View Post
    I see Cubs 9-2 to Padres 4-7 with no direction but a definite believer

    season >= 2014 and day = Tuesday and site = home and team = Cubs
    SU: 34-11 (1.78, 75.6%) avg line: -154.4 / 140.4 on / against: +$1,831 / -$2,055 ROI: +26.1% / -43.3%
    RL: 28-16 (1.02, 63.6%) avg line: 109.3 / -122.4 on / against: +$1,633 / -$1,883 ROI: +31.6% / -31.6%
    OU: 17-26-1 (-0.07, 39.5%) avg total: 7.9 over / under: -$1,135 / +$605 ROI: -23.1% / +12.1%
    Runs Walks SO Hits XBH HR SII MRI IL LOB TLOB ODP SRA PU
    Team 4.73 3.89 7.93 8.22 2.02 1.16 2.73 1.09 4.98 14.51 7.11 0.46 1.87 3.85
    Opp 2.96 2.76 8.76 7.02 1.69 0.71 1.87 0.73 2.09 11.96 6.00 0.62 3.04 3.52
    Showing 1 to 52 of 52 entries
    "Excellence is the gradual result of always striving to do better." - Pat Riley

  26. #26
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    season >= 2014 and day = Tuesday and site = away and team = Padres
    SU: 12-30 (-2.21, 28.6%) avg line: 139.2 / -151.2 on / against: -$1,402 / +$1,221 ROI: -32.9% / +19.3%
    RL: 17-25 (-1.00, 40.5%) avg line: -147.8 / 134.5 on / against: -$2,132 / +$1,821 ROI: -33.1% / +40.7%
    OU: 23-19-0 (0.86, 54.8%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: +$245 / -$614 ROI: +5.3% / -13.2%
    Runs Walks SO Hits XBH HR SII MRI IL LOB TLOB ODP SRA PU
    Team 3.33 2.45 9.02 8.31 1.76 0.86 2.05 0.76 1.71 13.71 6.86 0.82 3.83 3.37
    Opp 5.55 3.62 7.00 8.98 2.14 1.36 2.71 1.50 5.19 13.90 6.76 0.63 1.90 3.63
    "Excellence is the gradual result of always striving to do better." - Pat Riley

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    CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim Timh's Avatar
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    Teheran w/Emmel

    Year-By-Year: Paul Emmel




    I Year W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO9 SO/W
    2011 1 0 1.000 1.69 1 1 0 0 0 0 5.1 5 1 1 0 2 0 3 0 0 23 1.313 5.1 1.50
    2013 1 0 1.000 0.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 7 0 0 0 1 0 8 0 0 26 1.333 12.0 8.00
    2014 0 1 .000 9.95 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.1 10 7 7 0 0 0 5 1 0 28 1.579 7.1
    2015 0 0 1.50 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 5 1 1 1 4 1 4 0 0 26 1.500 6.0 1.00
    2017 0 1 .000 27.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.0 8 9 9 3 1 0 2 1 0 19 3.000 6.0 2.00
    Career 2 2 .500 6.08 5 5 0 0 0 0 26.2 35 18 18 4 8 1 22 2 0 122 1.613 7.4 2.75


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    M. Moore w/Emmel

    Year-By-Year: Paul Emmel




    I Year W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO9 SO/W
    2012 0 1 .000 15.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 3.0 3 5 5 1 4 0 4 1 0 17 2.333 12.0 1.00
    2013 0 0 7.20 1 1 0 0 0 0 5.0 7 4 4 2 4 0 3 0 0 26 2.200 5.4 0.75
    Career 0 1 .000 10.13 2 2 0 0 0 0 8.0 10 9 9 3 8 0 7 1 0 43 2.250 7.9 0.88


  29. #29
    Not all those who wander are lost tuck321's Avatar
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    Chacin on 5 6 ERA based on 24 innings

  30. #30
    Not all those who wander are lost tuck321's Avatar
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    Davies is getting Pina the good catcher

  31. #31
    Redshirt Senior Johnnyonthespot's Avatar
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    How Has Increased Scoring Affected MLB Totals?



    The 2017 MLB season has been defined by the impressive individual performances by widely unheralded players. Whether it’s Scooter Gennett mashing four home runs in one game, veteran journeyman Eric Thames challenging for the home run crown or rookie Aaron Judge hitting historically long dingers, it’s clear that we’re watching an unprecedented display of power.
    Right now the league is on pace to break the all-time single-season home run record, and there are several possibilities for this recent surge. One of the most popular theories is that Major League Baseball has been using a “juiced ball” in order to increase scoring and thereby improve ratings. This theory is partially validated by the increased exit speeds on balls in play. Whatever the cause, we’ve seen a massive spike in home runs over the past few seasons.
    As home runs and scoring has increased, we’ve seen a similar trend with MLB totals. In 2014, there were 8.1 total runs scored per game and the average total was 7.8. During that season, the over went just 1142-1202 (48.7%) which led to tremendous profits for sportsbooks. Public bettors love rooting for high-scoring games and live by the mantra “life’s too short to bet unders.” Since 2005, the majority of bettors at our contributing sportsbooks have taken the over in more than 75% of all games.
    From 2005 to 2014, MLB overs went 11,471-11,957 (49.0%) which meant a lot of losing for casual bettors. As scoring has increased, those same public bettors have benefited greatly. Since the start of the 2015 season, MLB overs have gone 2,903-2,776 (51.1%) including a 527-468 (53.0%) mark this season — easily the best over season in our database.
    The table below, which utilizes closing totals from Pinnacle, displays the average runs per game, total and over record for every season in our historical database.

    Many readers may be wondering how there could ever be value betting the under when the average runs per game have been higher than the average total in each of the past 12 seasons, but there’s a finite number of runs by which the game can go under, while there is no limit to how many runs can be scored in a game.
    This season as scoring continues to increase and overs continue to hit, oddsmakers have been forced to gradually increase their totals. Although the average total was just 8.30 in April, the average total has been nearly a full run higher in June.
    It’s also worth noting that public support for the over continues to grow. In April, the majority of bettors took the over in 77.9% of games. That figure increased to 89.5% in May and 88.4% in June. Clearly public bettors are looking to hammer these overs, and that could create value for contrarian bettors looking to capitalize on inflated lines.
    Bettors should also realize that overs receiving overwhelming public support have not fared well this season. When receiving at least two-thirds of public support, the over has gone 235-236 (49.9%). In all other games, the over has gone 292-232 (55.7%).
    Public money plays a larger role in baseball than it does in most other sports based on the sheer number of games. When sharp bettors aren’t involved, sportsbooks will adjust their numbers if there’s a significant exposure on one side. There’s far less money wagered on the total than there is on the moneyline,

  32. #32
    Redshirt Senior Johnnyonthespot's Avatar
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    Oh baby, wind is flowing hard out to left/center in KC.
    Boston have seen and hit Kenneddy a bunch. Pomeranz not a day guy
    Adelman clearly the pitcher in better form.
    Max and Straily having terrific years
    Last edited by Johnnyonthespot; 06-21-2017 at 10:13 AM.

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    Scherzer w/Demuth

    Year-By-Year: Dana DeMuth




    I Year W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO9 SO/W
    2008 0 0 0.00 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 5 1 0 0 1 0 6 2 0 24 1.000 9.0 6.00
    2009 0 1 .000 5.40 1 1 0 0 0 0 5.0 6 9 3 2 1 0 7 2 0 25 1.400 12.6 7.00
    2010 1 1 .500 4.15 2 2 0 0 0 0 13.0 12 6 6 1 4 0 10 0 0 51 1.231 6.9 2.50
    2016 1 0 1.000 2.25 1 1 0 0 0 0 8.0 5 2 2 1 2 0 11 0 0 31 0.875 12.4 5.50
    Career 2 2 .500 3.09 5 5 0 0 0 0 32.0 28 18 11 4 8 0 34 4 0 131 1.125 9.6 4.25


  34. #34
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    Scherzer at Marlins Pk.

    Year-By-Year: MIA-Marlins Pk




    I Year W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO9 SO/W
    2015 2 0 1.000 0.00 2 2 0 0 0 0 15.0 8 0 0 0 3 0 12 0 0 53 0.733 7.2 4.00
    2016 2 1 .667 4.58 3 3 0 0 0 0 19.2 18 10 10 4 4 0 19 1 0 80 1.119 8.7 4.75
    Career 4 1 .800 2.60 5 5 0 0 0 0 34.2 26 10 10 4 7 0 31 1 0 133 0.952 8.0 4.43


  35. #35
    CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim Timh's Avatar
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    Scherzer Day

    ear-By-Year: Day




    I Year W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO9 SO/W
    2008 0 0 2.05 5 3 0 0 0 0 22.0 17 6 5 1 8 1 32 4 0 91 1.136 13.1 4.00
    2009 2 5 .286 4.06 10 10 0 0 0 0 57.2 51 37 26 11 21 0 55 5 0 247 1.249 8.6 2.62
    2010 3 4 .429 3.21 11 11 0 0 0 0 67.1 72 27 24 6 25 0 67 3 0 283 1.441 9.0 2.68
    2011 4 4 .500 4.30 10 10 0 0 0 0 58.2 63 28 28 9 21 0 53 3 0 256 1.432 8.1 2.52
    2012 7 4 .636 3.94 16 16 0 0 0 0 93.2 93 42 41 13 28 0 125 3 1 394 1.292 12.0 4.46
    2013 5 0 1.000 3.35 8 8 0 0 0 0 51.0 38 20 19 6 16 0 61 1 1 204 1.059 10.8 3.81
    2014 9 3 .750 2.88 16 16 0 0 0 0 106.1 95 36 34 9 25 0 135 2 0 432 1.129 11.4 5.40
    2015 7 3 .700 1.98 13 13 0 2 2 0 95.1 63 24 21 9 13 1 109 2 1 361 0.797 10.3 8.38
    2016 5 3 .625 3.88 10 10 0 0 0 0 65.0 58 28 28 13 16 1 71 2 0 270 1.138 9.8 4.44
    2017 2 3 .400 2.53 5 5 0 0 0 0 32.0 17 12 9 4 10 0 44 2 0 125 0.844 12.4 4.40
    Career 44 29 .603 3.26 104 102 0 2 2 0 649.0 567 260 235 81 183 3 752 27 3 2663 1.156 10.4 4.11


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    Straily w/Demuth

    Year-By-Year: Dana DeMuth




    I Year W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP SO9 SO/W
    2016 0 1 .000 4.50 1 1 0 0 0 0 6.0 6 3 3 1 2 0 2 0 0 24 1.333 3.0 1.00
    2017 1 0 1.000 4.76 1 1 0 0 0 0 5.2 4 3 3 1 3 0 8 0 0 24 1.235 12.7 2.67
    Career 1 1 .500 4.63 2 2 0 0 0 0 11.2 10 6 6 2 5 0 10 0 0 48 1.286 7.7 2.00


  38. #37
    Donkey Hater aplous's Avatar
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    Anyone know of a site that has pitcher stats by temperature? Going to be 95+ in KC today for Pomeranz/Kennedy.

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    Mascot mrpickem's Avatar
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    Pads 7-1 RL day games at wrigley

    team = Cubs and H and Day and season > 2014 and o:team = Padres
    SU: 4-4 (-0.12, 50.0%) avg line: -184.7 / 168.3 on / against: -$285 / +$220 ROI: -19.4% / +27.5%
    RL: 1-7 (-1.62, 12.5%) avg line: 124.1 / -139.7 on / against: -$652 / +$603 ROI: -76.5% / +52.0%
    OU: 4-3-1 (0.31, 57.1%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: +$95 / -$135 ROI: +11.0% / -15.0%
    Runs Walks SO Hits XBH HR SII MRI IL LOB TLOB ODP SRA PU
    Team 4.00 4.62 8.50 8.38 2.00 0.62 2.38 1.25 3.88 17.25 8.50 1.11 2.25 4.11
    Opp 4.12 2.75 8.88 7.62 0.75 1.38 2.00 1.25 3.25 13.12 6.50 0.44 2.88 3.78

  40. #39
    Banned avalara's Avatar
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    The Cubs/Padres games the past 2 days were at night. Those stats don't look accurate.

  41. #40
    Mascot mrpickem's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by avalara View Post
    The Cubs/Padres games the past 2 days were at night. Those stats don't look accurate.
    My bad...syntax is everything at killer. DAY returns day games...wtf does Day return??

    Anyways 3-1 pads ML and 4-0 RL

    team = Cubs and H and DAY and season > 2014 and o:team = Padres
    SU: 1-3 (-1.50, 25.0%) avg line: -158.4 / 144.0 on / against: -$385 / +$335 ROI: -64.0% / +83.8%
    RL: 0-4 (-3.00, 0.0%) avg line: 148.0 / -164.2 on / against: -$418 / +$409 ROI: -100.0% / +57.6%
    OU: 3-0-1 (2.50, 100.0%) avg total: 7.5 over / under: +$300 / -$315 ROI: +65.2% / -74.1%
    Runs Walks SO Hits XBH HR SII MRI IL LOB TLOB ODP SRA PU
    Team 4.25 4.75 9.25 8.75 2.00 0.50 2.50 1.50 2.75 19.75 10.25 0.20 3.00 3.80
    Opp 5.75 2.75 8.75 9.50 0.50 1.50 2.50 2.00 3.75 13.00 6.25 0.60 3.25 3.80

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