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Thread: The Open Championship

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    Seasoned Veteran Alan Tongue's Avatar
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    Default The Open Championship

    On to Birkdale

    More about the course closer to the event, but The Open has been here nine times previously. Only one European has won here (Harrington), with the US winning five times and Australia three. With the exception of The Dark Shark in 91 all winners have been multiple major winners, and five have won the first or second of back to back Open wins here.

    The Open trails only The Masters in repeating trends. The week prior is crucial. In the past 25 years only Todd Hamilton and Zach Johnson played in the US the week prior. Six of the past seven winners have played the Scottish Open the week prior. How they perform isnít really relevant Ė Stenson 13th in Scottish, Rory 14th, Els and Clarke made the cut, Oosthuizen missed the cut and Bitch Tits won the double. Obviously work the week prior on a proper links course is an ideal preparation.

    The schedule has changed this year, the weeks after US Open used to be Germany, France, Scotland, Open, now itís Germany, France, Ireland, Scotland, Open. The addition of Ireland may put a spanner in the works for somebody like Rory, as he is host in Ireland, has committed to Scottish, and that makes it three big weeks in a row.

    Other than preparation on a links course, how they have fared on links courses is important too. 11 of the past 12 winners had finished at least sixth previously, and eight of the past 12 had finished at least once in the top 3.

    A sneaky little form guide is the Qatar Masters. Itís not a links course, but does get very windy there. Here is how previous Open winners had fared there

    2016 Ė Henrik Stenson 15 appearance, one win, five T10ís
    2015 - Zach Johnson never played
    2014 - Rory McIlroy never played
    2013 - Phil Mickelson never played
    2012 - Ernie Els 9 appearances, one win, 2 T10ís. Adam Scott choked, and he had won twice in Qatar.
    2011 - Darren Clarke 6 appearances, 1 T10
    2010 - Louis Oosthuizen 9 appearances, a 2nd and 3 T10


    Even Paul Lawrie won there the February before he won the Open. Iím not looking at guys that have done well there, but eliminating guys who have played there but did little (Justin Rose 6 appearances, no T10ís)


    Tournament experience is crucial.

    2016 Ė Henrik Stenson won at 12th attempt
    2015 - Zach Johnson 12th attempt
    2014 - Rory McIlroy 6th attempt
    2013 - Phil Mickelson 18th attempt
    2012 - Ernie Els 1st at 12th attempt, 2nd at 22nd
    2011 - Darren Clarke 20th appearance
    2010 - Louis Oosthuizen 3rd appearance
    2009 Ė Stewart Cink 11th appearance
    2007/08 Ė Padraig Harrington 11th and 12th

    Even Eldrick had to wait until his 6th attempt. It took the best player of the last couple of decades six attempts to win, the second best 18 goes, the best links player since Thompson 12 and another 10, the next great another 6. Moobs didnít get a T10 until his 12th attempt. This may explain why eight of the last 11 winners were aged 35 or over, and four of the last six have been at least 40.


    The winner has also needs to have won on the US or Euro Tour at least once since the previous yearís event. Only five winners this century had not won in the preceding 12 months (although Stenson won 54 weeks prior to winning last yearís event)


    There have been 64 individual winners on both Tours since last yearís Open, with only 11 of those previously finishing in the top 6. The following have played at least 5 Opens previously (age in brackets) Ė Snedeker (36), Dustin (33), Justin Rose (36), Leishman (33), Harrington (45), Fowler (28), McIlroy (28), Sergio (37) and Hatton (25), and all but Hatton have finished top 3. Matsuyama and Spieth have not played the event at least 5 times. Harrington, McIlroy ,Dustin and Sergio fit into the multiple major winners at Birkdale. Iím putting the pen through Harrington for obvious reasons, and Rose because of his Qatar form. McIlroy will have that hard schedule. I will keep an eye on the schedules of Snedeker, Dustin, Leishman, Fowler and Sergio and see if any commit to the Scottish Open. As soon as they do Iím on. Fowler already has, so it looks my annual tradition of betting on Ricky at The Open will occur again
    "My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who doníthave the courage to sometimes say:I donít know...." - Nassim Taleb

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    The Vodka Shakes KJ's Avatar
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    I believe the lack of performance from the big guns in Wisconsin will factor in here...expecting a loaded leaderboard come Saturday

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    good stuff Alan

    Other than preparation on a links course, how they have fared on links courses is important too. 11 of the past 12 winners had finished at least sixth previously, and eight of the past 12 had finished at least once in the top 3.

    Assuming the 11 of 12 past winners finishing better than 6th an all time stat that is some good info

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    Love the Open as it is on so early and just goes forever, plus after Fox coverage of US Open will be a welcome relief

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    Seasoned Veteran Alan Tongue's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHSGTMD View Post
    good stuff Alan

    Other than preparation on a links course, how they have fared on links courses is important too. 11 of the past 12 winners had finished at least sixth previously, and eight of the past 12 had finished at least once in the top 3.

    Assuming the 11 of 12 past winners finishing better than 6th an all time stat that is some good info
    "11 of the past 12 winners had finished at least sixth previously, and eight of the past 12 had finished at least once in the top 3." is for the Open, nut just links courses
    "My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who doníthave the courage to sometimes say:I donít know...." - Nassim Taleb

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    CTG Partner B.A.R.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHSGTMD View Post
    Love the Open as it is on so early and just goes forever, plus after Fox coverage of US Open will be a welcome relief
    I love the 130 am eastern start and sleep for a bit and going when you wake up. Fantastic.

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    CTG Partner B.A.R.'s Avatar
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    Great notes as always A.T.

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    CTG Partner B.A.R.'s Avatar
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    PGA 2017 Majors & Specials British Open 2017
    Thu 6/22 1:00AM
    All players have action
    Dustin Johnson +700
    Rory McIlroy +900
    Jordan Spieth +1100
    Jason Day +1400
    Henrik Stenson +1600
    Sergio Garcia +1600
    Justin Rose +1800
    Hideki Matsuyama +2000
    Rickie Fowler +2000
    Jon Rahm +2200
    Adam Scott +2500
    Brooks Koepka +2500
    Phil Mickelson +3300
    Thomas Pieters +3300
    Justin Thomas +3500
    Louis Oosthuizen +3500
    Tommy Fleetwood +3500
    Branden Grace +4000
    Paul Casey +4000
    Alex Noren +4000
    Tyrrell Hatton +5000
    Martin Kaymer +5500
    Patrick Reed +5500
    Charl Schwartzel +6600
    Lee Westwood +6600
    Marc Leishman +6600
    Matt Kuchar +6600
    Matthew Fitzpatrick +6600
    Shane Lowry +6600
    Zach Johnson +6600
    Brandt Snedeker +8000
    Ian Poulter +8000
    Rafa Cabrera-Bello +8000
    Chris Wood +8000
    Bubba Watson +9000
    Russell Knox +9000
    Byeong-Hun An +10000
    J.B. Holmes +10000
    Jason Dufner +10000
    Jimmy Walker +10000
    Kevin Kisner +10000
    Francesco Molinari +10000
    Graeme McDowell +10000
    Ross Fisher +10000
    Daniel Berger +11000
    Andy Sullivan +12500
    Charley Hoffman +12500
    Danny Willett +12500
    Emiliano Grillo +12500
    Jim Furyk +12500
    Padraig Harrington +12500
    Soren Kjeldsen +12500
    Bernd Wiesberger +12500
    Gary Woodland +12500
    Kevin Chappell +12500
    Bill Haas +15000
    Scott Piercy +15000
    Andrew Johnston +15000
    Billy Horschel +15000
    Bryson DeChambeau +15000
    Keegan Bradley +15000
    Luke Donald +15000
    Nicolas Colsaerts +15000
    Ryan Moore +15000
    Ryan Palmer +15000
    Steve Stricker +15000
    Thorbjorn Olesen +15000
    Tony Finau +15000
    Kevin Na +17500
    Harris English +17500
    Joost Luiten +17500
    Jamie Donaldson +20000
    Thongchai Jaidee +20000
    Victor Dubuisson +20000
    Webb Simpson +20000
    Ernie Els +25000
    Matteo Manassero +25000
    Matthew Southgate +25000
    Darren Clarke +50000

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    Redshirt Senior gps_3's Avatar
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    "More about the course closer to the event, but The Open has been here nine times previously. Only one European has won here (Harrington), with the US winning five times and Australia three."

    Any thoughts on why this is? Is it less "linksy" than the other courses in the rota? Is the weather better?



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    CTG Baller ProV1Colt's Avatar
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    I'll be eyeing Sergio, Fleetwood & Sneds in some shape or fashion
    Maybe Hoffman & Westwood too
    Last edited by ProV1Colt; 06-24-2017 at 04:30 PM.

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    Seasoned Veteran Alan Tongue's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gps_3 View Post
    "More about the course closer to the event, but The Open has been here nine times previously. Only one European has won here (Harrington), with the US winning five times and Australia three."

    Any thoughts on why this is? Is it less "linksy" than the other courses in the rota? Is the weather better?


    It might just be a tough course where the cream rises. Thomson won two of his five Opens there, Watson won his fifth, Arnie won his first Open, Trevino his first Open, Miller had already won a US Open and was top 3 two of the previous three years, O’Meara won a Masters earlier that year, and Harrington won the second of his back to back.

    Or, unlike most Open courses this one is in England (near Liverpool), so this may have less wind by British standards. Harrington won with +3, but the average score of the other eight winners was -7.5. The Womens British Open was held here a few years ago and only one European finished in the Top 10.
    "My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who doníthave the courage to sometimes say:I donít know...." - Nassim Taleb

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    CTG Partner B.A.R.'s Avatar
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    It was very windy in '08 if I remember correctly.

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    Redshirt Senior gps_3's Avatar
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    Given the trends posted and the odds, I think the list I like looks something like this:

    Sergio +1600
    Scott +2500
    Phil +3300
    Westwood +6600
    Snedeker +8000

    All have had success at the Open in the past on multiple occasions. Westwood is kind of a sentimental pick, but if Sergio got his this year, why not Westy?

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    CTG Partner B.A.R.'s Avatar
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    Phil and Bones have parted ways after 25 years. Tim will have bag rest of the year.

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    CTG Partner B.A.R.'s Avatar
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    Sergio gets married the week after I believe.

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    CTG Partner B.A.R.'s Avatar
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    I was thinking of Lee...I'd love to see him win one...and 66-1 sure is 'tasty'.

  18. #18
    Redshirt Senior gps_3's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by B.A.R. View Post
    I was thinking of Lee...I'd love to see him win one...and 66-1 sure is 'tasty'.
    Those odds seem off to me. Westwood may not have great form across all events the last several years, but he comes to play in majors. And the Open has suited the older champion unlike any other tournament in recent years: Els, Clarke, Phil, ZJ, Henrik. Rory is the outlier this decade

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    Seasoned Veteran Alan Tongue's Avatar
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    I cheer for Westwood every major, but he has become a non-winner. He has won on the Euro Tour just once in the past 5 years and 7 years on the US Tour.

    He'll be one for top 5, top 10, top 20, etc
    "My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who doníthave the courage to sometimes say:I donít know...." - Nassim Taleb

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    Fairway to Heaven crawdads's Avatar
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    Nearly impossible not to like Sergio. Alex Noren is starting to dominate as well.

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    Couch Potato aweber's Avatar
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    Hey guys, I'm newer to the site so forgive me for this question but do you guy said usually post about all the tournaments or just the big ones? I've been looking at the Travelers this weekend and I'm really liking Bubba Watson right now. Just curious if anyone's seeing some good stuff for it.
    Last edited by aweber; 06-21-2017 at 01:20 PM. Reason: Accidentally hit post.

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    CTG Partner B.A.R.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aweber View Post
    Hey guys, I'm newer to the site so forgive me for this question but do you guy said usually post about all the tournaments or just the big ones? I've been looking at the Travelers this weekend and I'm really liking Bubba Watson right now. Just curious if anyone's seeing some good stuff for it.
    A lot of different tournaments get talked about, it just depends.

    Feel free to start your own thread for discussion!

    Here is an example of a yearly thread... http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/...7807-2017-Golf

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    CTG Baller ProV1Colt's Avatar
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    Speith seems to be getting into that zone after his Rd4 in the US Open
    i see him at +1200 for The Open

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    Seasoned Veteran Alan Tongue's Avatar
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    Scottish Open field taking shape

    Adam Scott
    Alex Noren
    Bernd Wiesberger
    Branden Grace
    Emiliano Grillo
    Henrik Stenson
    Jason Dufner
    Jeunghun Wang
    Martin Kaymer
    Matt Kuchar
    Matthew Fitzpatrick
    Patrick Reed
    Rafa Cabrera Bello
    Rickie Fowler
    Rory McIlroy
    Ross Fisher
    Russell Knox
    Tommy Fleetwood
    Tyrrell Hatton
    "My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who doníthave the courage to sometimes say:I donít know...." - Nassim Taleb

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    CTG Partner B.A.R.'s Avatar
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    Great field.

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