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Thread: Utah has a real shot at going far IMO

  1. #1
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    Default Utah has a real shot at going far IMO

    Been running hot lately so can take a little stab here, going on a hunch.

    Jazz to win the West 33/1, risking 1 unit.

    Look, I get that this is a long shot. The point isn't that I expect Utah to be in the finals, I just think the value proposition is extremely favorable here.

    Utah is 24-16, with 20 home and road games already completed. During the first half of the season, they were consistently ravaged by injury, as their intended starting 5 got their first extended minutes together in early January. Despite the injuries, Utah has leveraged its depth and sheer amount of good players to rack up wins.

    In games which both Hill and Heyward have started and finished without getting injured, Utah is 8-1 with an average point differential of +14.2. For reference, Golden State has an average point differential of 11.8. When also factoring in the fact that Utah plays at the slowest pace in the league, this point differential is astounding. It implies that the Jazz mop the floor with the rest of the league when both those guys are healthy.

    To date, Utah ranks first overall in defensive rating. They have the league's top rim protector and offensive rim runner in Gobert, an additional rim protector in Favors, a premier defensive point guard in Hill, and a deep versatile bench. They can go small or big, and currently rank 10th in offense which I expect to rise provided some health moving forward.

    Now let's look at the upcoming schedule, here are all their games before the all star break.

    Fri, Jan 13 10:30 PM 631 available from $20
    Sat, Jan 14 9:00 PM 696 available from $14
    Mon, Jan 16 9:00 PM 1,262 available from $10
    Fri, Jan 20 8:30 PM 850 available from $22
    Sat, Jan 21 9:00 PM 583 available from $17
    Mon, Jan 23 9:00 PM 759 available from $18
    Tue, Jan 24 9:00 PM 781 available from $19
    Thu, Jan 26 10:30 PM TNT 730 available from $26
    Sat, Jan 28 9:00 PM 798 available from $22
    FEBRUARY OPPONENT TIME (ET) TV TICKETS
    Wed, Feb 1 9:00 PM 911 available from $15
    Sat, Feb 4 9:00 PM 846 available from $23
    Mon, Feb 6 7:30 PM 1,163 available from $17
    Wed, Feb 8 8:00 PM 2,174 available from $12
    Thu, Feb 9 8:30 PM 869 available from $13
    Sat, Feb 11 9:00 PM 755 available from $24
    Mon, Feb 13 9:00 PM 919 available from $21
    Wed, Feb 15
    Only two road back to backs, only one 4 in 5, and a weak slate of opponents overall. I expect Utah to put together a very strong stretch here, with upside to enter the all star break at 33-17, and probably no worse than 30-20.

    Setting aside the Warriors, Utah has advantageous matchups against Houston and San Antonio. Little less so the Clippers, but even that matchup is a coin flip imo.

    Simplifying all of the above gibberish, my point is I expect Utah to play at a 60-65 win pace for the rest of the season. A team as deep with as many B+/A- players as they have which also is literally the best defense in the NBA has a chance against any team in a 7 game series. If they find themselves in the 2/3/6/7 side of the west bracket, I expect them to make the western conference finals provided health, at which point they'll be playing with house money against the Warriors.

    Lot of words spent explaining why I'm probably just voluntarily setting 1 unit on fire, GL guys.

  2. #2
    CTG Partner B.A.R.'s Avatar
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    Great analysis.

  3. #3
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    Also suggest backing Utah ats blindly until the all star break as long as they can stay fairly healthy. Aside from that 4th game in 5 nights at Denver, they won't be at any distinct scheduling disadvantages, which are really the only reason to not back them for the foreseeable future.

    They're the Utah Jazz, so the book doesn't get much public action on them (yet). And the lack of consistent health has not given Vegas an accurate body of work, they're undervalued right now. Should beat the hell out of a few teams over the next month.

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    Seasoned Veteran nbafan88's Avatar
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    to win the west meaning get to the finals or the regular season?


    assuming that means to get to the finals..... its +4000 on 5d
    "Excellence is the gradual result of always striving to do better." - Pat Riley

  5. #5
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    Win the western conference finals, NBAfan. Nice, even more favorable on 5d. Grabbed my +3300 elsewhere already so oh well.

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    Varsity Player Hulu's Avatar
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    Agree that Utah is a sleeper. Pick your spots and the profit will be there for a while until the market catches up. But being this is a small market team, that will take a while.

  7. #7
    Seasoned Veteran nbafan88's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by raems View Post
    Win the western conference finals, NBAfan. Nice, even more favorable on 5d. Grabbed my +3300 elsewhere already so oh well.
    love that wager
    "Excellence is the gradual result of always striving to do better." - Pat Riley

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    Reigning CTG Ref Blaming Champ emkee's Avatar
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    GL Raems.

    Ghost of Stern would have a hard time letting that happen though but admit the 'value' is there.

  9. #9
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    1-0 ats, +23 points ats. Want to track their performance for a little while here, taking them against Orlando tonight too. Jazz played with enormous confidence last night, don't see them letting down the next night. Any line below 15 has value imo.

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    Agreed! Good luck!

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    CTG Super Moderator ~1987's Avatar
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    Hood went down with a non-contact knee injury

    that could torpedo this theory if hes out for a while. For sure hurt it

  12. #12
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    2-0 su, 1-1 ats with a +19 ats differential.

    Hoping that Hood injury isn't what it looked like, he's their offensive juice.

  13. #13
    Seasoned Veteran nbafan88's Avatar
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    Thankfully he was walking around after the game without any protection for his knee.
    "Excellence is the gradual result of always striving to do better." - Pat Riley

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    Friend of CTG Inspekdah's Avatar
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    Em is right the league won't help them. And any defensive edge they have during the regular season will be wiped clean when other teams increase their effort accordingly. I think the roster is as good as it could be provided Exum is a bust and Favors never panned out to be a dominant force. They are a great PG or a superstar away from competing but unfortunately those aren't available. Had Exum been star, sure.

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    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    3-0 straight up, 1-2 ats with a +18.5 ats differential. Few tight losses ats last couple games, next two going to be against inferior teams on a b2b. Curious to see what the lines will be.

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    Seasoned Veteran nbafan88's Avatar
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    saturday should be tons of fun.....
    "Excellence is the gradual result of always striving to do better." - Pat Riley

  17. #17
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    5-0 straight up, 2-3 ats with a +19.5 ats differential.

    Big game Monday at home against OKC, would be nice to get given the next night is a 4 in 5 at Denver.

    CP3 injury sets this team's floor as a 4 seed as long as Rudy/Hill/Heyward can stay healthy. Would love to see them get the 3 but seems slightly too hopeful, tough to expect them gaining 4 games on Houston in 37 games.

  18. #18
    Varsity Player Hulu's Avatar
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    Really like them home against OKC tomorrow. Line should be 7 to 8 imo. I think 5.5 is a good buy.

  19. #19
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    Agree that the price is slightly out of whack on the game, but don't have a good feel for the extended rest off a blowout loss angle for OKC. Definitely a game that Utah should win a lot more often than not, at least on paper.

  20. #20
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    It's a longshot for sure but I can't see this team beating sas, hou, gsw in playoffs. Not enough playmakers tbh

  21. #21
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    9-3 straight up, 4-8 ats somehow with a +16.5 ats differential.

    The emergence of Alec Burks as some pop off the bench is really big for them, allows them to withstand Hood's injury and overall mediocre performance when he's in.

    This team's focused comeback against Charlotte paired with last night's performance against Atlanta is a turning point imo. Favors had his legs under him last night in a big way too, think they ride a wave into the all star break.

  22. #22
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    13-6 straight up, 8-11 ats with a +43 ats differential. Really weird to see a team go 8-11 ats in 19 games but be +43 against the spread, suggests more value on them coming up. Worth tracking.

  23. #23
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    14-8 straight up, 9-13 ats with a +7 ats margin.

    If they hold onto the 4 seed and San Antonio gets the 1 seed, they actually have a prayer's chance. Match up fine with SA in the second round and them against the Clips would be a coin flip if Utah has home court. Dubs in the second round working KD back into the mix against the Rockets might go according to plan..

  24. #24
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    16-8 straight up 9-15 ats with a -2 ats margin. Very interesting next 3 games -- Wednesday at Houston / Saturday at OKC/ Clips Monday in Utah.

  25. #25
    Varsity Player Hulu's Avatar
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    Watching this team last night I am done betting on them (for the third or fourth time this year...lol). This team simply can't or won't put inferior opponents away. They seem quite comfortable with a 5 point lead late.

  26. #26
    Varsity Player raems's Avatar
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    Hulu I can't remember a team more impacted by rest in recent history off the top of my head. Any time they're not playing on full rest their offense is brutal to watch. On a per possession basis they're not that bad at all, but it feels like every possession last 20 seconds and comes down to whether or not they execute perfectly.

    Good news is the rest is regular throughout the playoffs. If they get the 4 seed things can get interesting.

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